I received a great, and well-meaning question from a new All Star Options subscriber about a recent trade we entered in $VLO that offers a great lesson or reminder to those who need it.
Question:
What are your thoughts on when the value of your options hits a 50% gain in one day? The September 175 calls for VLO I purchased hit +48% yesterday. Do you trim/roll/close with such a quick gain? I understand this is more of a personal preference as it relates to what you want to make on a trade, but if you hold those 48% increases, they could eventually increase to +150%!
He kinda answers his own question in the end, but here is my response:
One sector that I feel a bit underexposed to right now is real estate -- particularly REITs. And when a dominant player in New York City's commercial real estate sector pops up in our scans with a beautiful chart, it feels to me like this one might be set to surprise a lot of people.
Every once in a while, I’ll put on what I call “all or nothing” trades.
What this means in practice is that I’ll put on a defined risk options trade knowing full well that the trade is either going to net a profit, or it’s going to be a zero – a full loss of invested capital. There’s no in-between.
Usually, this happens because I love a setup, but the price level on the chart that would invalidate my thesis is pretty far away. If we get there, it’s more than likely that whatever premium I paid to enter the trade will have nearly evaporated. There will be nothing left to sell, even if I want to.
Two trades with March expiration options have concluded for me this week that demonstrate the yin and yang of these types of trades.
On Feb. 14, I put on a bearish bet in Hormel Foods $HRL. I bought the March 25 puts for 15 cents. This trade was put on at a time when I was looking to add some bearish exposure to my portfolio to help balance out the heavy long exposure I had in other positions.
Today's trade is a bet on the speculative juices continuing to flow through the summer. This stock has been performing fantastically since the November stock market explosion, but if we're a believer that this stock is simply tracing out the right side of a larger base, then we've still got plenty of upside to go.
Today's trade is in a name that has the potential to really rip. Of course, the nature of this type of trade is that it has a lower probability of success.
But if we get it right, our potential gains will likely be exponentially higher than any heat we're likely to take in this trade if we're early or wrong.
The book isn’t addressed to traders, though it frequently references our profession in its anecdotes and many of the stories are very relatable.
And it certainly has me thinking about better ways to decide to quit a trade, quit a strategy, or quit a product.
I frequently go down rabbit holes, experimenting with models to extract consistent, repeatable, acceptably risk-adjusted returns via index options. I’ve written about my near-constant obsession with this project numerous times. It continues.
As a trader, it's always good to be working on some kind of “side hustle.” In our cases, this is more likely to look like building a new strategy, fine-tuning a scanning method, or constructing a money management scheme that can propel us into becoming more profitable traders.
Today's trade is in one of those names that has already benefited from the recent surge in stocks and crypto prices and is likely to continue thriving if this brewing mania is here to stay for a while longer.
I see something in the charts, or read something in the news, or listen to something on spaces and it triggers me into taking action.
Sometimes I’ll take aggressive actions because this idea I have – wherever it came from – is something I feel strongly about. I feel that the odds are heavily stacked in my favor. Or perhaps the payoff, if I’m right, can be so overwhelmingly profitable that it’s impossible to ignore.
We all have these feels about certain trades we’re in from time to time, right?
We get excited. We get optimistic. We start counting our winnings before they’ve even hit our account. It becomes impossible not to daydream.