During a recent Analyst meeting, it was discussed now that we're getting further confirmation that the lows may be in for the broader stock market, it's time to start shifting our attention to stocks that displayed strong relative strength in recent months.
The chart of Groupon $GRPN (remember them?) is exhibit A for relative strength as it's on the verge of printing new multi-year highs. And the team feels if this one goes, the stock could double. If it does, some strategically selected long calls could pay handsomely.
Yesterday, we saw large gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Averages. While I would've preferred to see these big rallies come on overwhelming high volume that far exceeds the average, we did close on an increase in volume, which technically qualifies as a "follow-through day."
While this isn't a guarantee that we've seen the bottom of recent price action, it does add some credence to the idea that the recent lows may be a little more durable and hold for a while.
If the market turn is here, then now would be a good time to take some fliers on previously high-flying names that took a dip with everything else in the recent morass.
With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."
We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.
I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.
Well, now that the bounce feels like it's running out of a little steam, it's time to scan the universe of stocks that have been underperforming and had tepid bounces (at best) during this week's counter-trend rally.
Today's stock is one of the laggards in the semiconductors space.
Since there seems to have been a bit of confusion about the $QQQ campaign that I embarked upon back on Wednesday, I'm creating a new post to help make new trades clearer for you all.
So far this AM, I've closed one of our put spreads at my profit target, and I'm adding a new one.
With $VIX showing signs that perhaps yesterday was a blow off top, I'm going to gingerly wade into the premium selling pond with a defined-risk Iron Condor trade on a semiconductor stock that may be entering a wide range of sideways chop.
It sure is acting like it. I'm very impressed with how Bitcoin has held in this week. Yes, it's down for the week like everything else. But the damage relative to tech stocks is minor.
Feels like now might be a good time to wade in with a mildly bullish bet.
Today's trade is something I don't do much of: a pairs trade, but with an options twist.
A typical pairs trade goes like this: You find two stocks that typically trade together, but for some reason, they've diverged. So, you buy the underperforming stock and short-sell an equal dollar amount of the outperforming stock. This is typically a market-neutral trade where you're betting the values of the two stocks will eventually resume their normal parity, resulting in a net profit from the two trades.
We have a situation developing right now that screams pairs trade to me, but I'm going to do it with options.
We have to be selective out here. The names that were working last year are not the names or sectors that are working this year.
Meanwhile, downtrends that have been in place for a year or more are starting to find their footing. And when you add in a relatively high short interest, if the worst is now behind us, then names like the one I'm trading today have the potential to surprise to the upside.
Everyone has an opinion on the stock underlying today's trade. Strong opinions.
The Bulls think the stock price is a steal here. The Bears think this party is over, and a long overdue comeuppance is on the horizon, which will careen the stock price lower.