This morning, the team was discussing a notable Board of Directors insider making a sizeable $5 million purchase of stock.
While an insider's buy isn't necessarily grounds for me to get interested in getting involved, it did catch our attention and after looking at the chart and the sector, it looks like a trade we'd like to get into--carefully.
In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I assess the current market environment, post- whatever the hell we're calling what happened a couple weeks ago (Volmageddon 2?, Yen YoYo? The Carry Drop?).
It feels more and more like that was merely a footnote to an otherwise pretty robust bull market. We'll see.
Regardless, we're looking for bullish setups in this tape and an online retailer out of South Korea has our attention.
Feels fitting to position ourselves in a company that is known for going fast. Because if this bull market is about to resume its normal operation, then this company is likely going to lead us higher, quickly.
When the storm is upon us, it's too late to purchase hurricane insurance. Nobody will sell it to you. Of if they will, the prices will be obscene.
Last Monday, when the VIX printed a 65 -- it was too late to buy downside protection. If you did, you were asking for your face to be ripped off. And it likely was.
Now that the dust has settled a bit, volatility has abated significantly, and the relative winners and loses sorted themselves out, we're seeing some good setups to position ourselves for any additional downside action.
Additionally, it offers me a good chance to balance out some of the risks I still have on the books in my long positions.
It's fashionable in certain circles to talk about having a Canadian escape plan if shit gets too weird here in the United States.
I'm not one of those. Though I love Canada, having grown up across the border in Buffalo, NY.
There were many times in my younger days, while spending a day across the border, where I'd find myself short on cash and I'd have to hit an ATM to get some loonies! And most often, those ATMs were run by CIBC.
So maybe I should attempt to earn back some of those ATM fees (plus interest!).
A surprising outcome for some of my defined-risk long delta trades this week is that my losses weren’t as pronounced as I would’ve expected given the vicious sell-off we’ve seen in many tech names.
Why?
One thing that isn’t often discussed about being long options premium when expressing bullish or bearish bets is that owning long options (calls or puts) also means we’re long volatility.
In situations like these where we saw VIX briefly with a 65-handle, the rapid rise in options premiums put a floor in many of the calls I had long positions in. So while many bullish positions in my portfolio were losing money, the losses were rather pedestrian relative to what others who were holding long stock or futures positions were likely experiencing.
It’s not a win, but it felt like one this week.
We discuss this and a whole lot more in this week’s Options Jam Session:
The stock market likely has a couple of aftershocks left in it. But if the worst is over, I have to believe this is a great opportunity to buy the dip in some names that will be beneficiaries of the AI boom.
And there are few bigger and well-positioned names than Microsoft.
This market environment still demands that we define our risks and we're going to leverage elevated volatility in a way you might not expect to express our bet.
What do you do when the stock market sh*t hits the fan?
Be honest.
Do you tend to freak out and panic into quick exits? (if so, you aren’t alone!)
Do you recoil in fear and call it “zen detachment?” (there are more of these than you know!)
Do you get busy reading everything you can, talking to everyone you can, and watching all the financial TV you can to try to figure out why this volatility is happening?
Do you stoically go down with the ship turning your trades into investments?
We all have our different ways of dealing with the mental volatility that stock market volatility stokes in all of us. These past couple of weeks have revealed new things to ourselves.