US Treasuries have stopped falling – for the moment.
But it’s a mixed bag.
Short setups for long-duration bonds remain in play despite pullbacks underway, while the shorter end of the curve never managed to break down.
It’s messy.
So, let’s run through the US Treasury futures for an updated read on the bond market.
First up is the 30-year T-bond:
The 30-year has broken below a shelf of former lows at approximately 123. It’s a short as long as it’s below that level with a measured target of 113’15.
But the 30-year is finding support at last year’s lows, bouncing higher toward our line in the sand.
Are investors really buying bonds, betting on a squeeze higher?
Perhaps it’s just my Twitter feed. (Or are we calling it "X" now?)
I’m perplexed by the growing chatter around picking the bottom in bonds.
Warning: Picking bottoms is never a good look.
It’s unbecoming, especially when there are zero signs of a reversal. (The same applies to tops.)
I understand the Nasdaq 100 had its best first half – like, ever.
But what does that have to do with yield charts?
Rates continue to rise worldwide.
Here’s a look at Germany, France, Portugal, and US benchmark rates:
All are steadily grinding higher following explosive advances last year. Yet none have decisively resolved to the upside from their respective multi-month ranges.