While everyone focuses on the S&P 500 finding resistance at its 200-day moving average, bonds are posting their most substantial rally since the early 2020 peak.
Treasuries have represented downside risk for almost two years. We get it. Nobody's wanted bonds!
The long-term Treasury bond ETF $TLT has gained almost 20% since late October. In the process, it registered its largest four-week rate of change in a decade (aside from the covid related volatility).
This is what a momentum thrust looks like:
Notice the previous rallies in mid-2021 and earlier this summer (highlighted in yellow).
Bonds are bouncing off key levels of potential support.
For some, it’s a former low. And for others, it’s a downside extension level. Regardless, we can all rejoice that bonds have stopped falling.
That doesn’t mean we’re rushing out to buy Treasuries. Instead, it signals a constructive start to a potential bottoming process for the bond market and relief from downside volatility.
Let’s check out the charts!
First up is the long-duration Zero Coupon ETF $ZROZ:
ZROZ has rebounded above its former 2014 lows, posting a potential failed breakdown. Risks are to the upside above 82 with potential resistance at the shelf of former lows around 100.
It’s a similar story for the Treasury Bond ETF $TLT:
Monday night we held our November Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each
Don’t take your eyes off the US dollar and interest rates!
I know it’s been a long year, but we’re finally witnessing early signs of potential trend reversals. The breakdown in the dollar last week confirmed the mounting evidence suggesting the USD has reached its peak.
Now, will interest rates follow?
Check out the dual pane chart of the US dollar index $DXY and the 30-year yield $TYX:
They look almost identical. The recent breakdown in the dollar marks the lone flaw between the two, raising the question…
Will the strong relationship between rates and the dollar hold?