Last week I maintained my bullish directional biases even in the face of another down leg in crypto markets. Today, we're monitoring an increasing number of failed breakdowns, meaning that bulls are once again asserting control of the tape.
Crypto markets have continued their sell-off into last week, with Bitcoin losing the critical 60,000 support level and the total crypto market-cap briefly dipping below $2T for the first time since February.
I've been maintaining a neutral short-term bias for the last five weeks, which has helped us keep away from much of the precarious action over this period. But I'm seeing mounting signs that point to a tradable low being carved, and as such, I'm changing our short-term bias from neutral to bullish.
Bitcoin is finding support at a key level alongside many altcoins. Further, this is within the context of a wider reset in a longer-term bull market.
Heading into last week we were mindful of the compression in volatility which meant an increased likelihood for larger price swings. Further, we were being patient given a number of our data sets were pointing to mixed signs.
We've seen selling continue, particularly ramping up this morning.
I'm maintaining my neutral short-term bias. My data sets are mixed, with some indicators pointing in bullish territory while others skew bearish.
Volatility has contracted to extreme levels. Given volatility's mean-reverting nature, we're likely going to experience an expansion in volatility in the short-term.
I'm being patient and letting the weight of the evidence tip me to a more bullish stance.
Last week saw short-term weakness manifest in crypto markets. For the time being, I still have a neutral short-term bias in the context of a longer-term bullish outlook.
I'm seeing a number of positive developments that supports an intermediate-term bullish bias. The current weight of the evidence points to further upside in the coming months.
Bitcoin continues to move higher following its retest of the 60,000 support level. The short-term trends in crypto markets are higher, which aligns with equity markets making new highs.
There's no denying that the trends in crypto have been rather messy over the last few months. Bitcoin and most crypto assets have been consolidating their gains and many cryptocurrencies are either rangebound or trending lower in short timeframes.
I've been writing in recent weeks that the best course of action is to adopt a patient approach and let the tape setup more constructively.
Over the last few days, we've moved a step in the right direction. But equally, the high timeframe trends are still choppy especially with Bitcoin still testing its former 2021 highs. While this recent failed breakdown in Bitcoin could be indicative of the ending stages of this consolidation, we are also in the context of a longer-term sideways chop.
When it comes to Bitcoin, I'd like to see a breakout above 73,000 to confirm a new leg higher. But down the cap-scale, we could be seeing opportunities begin to emerge.
The big takeaway is that I'm not seeing a big reason to do anything from a trading standpoint.
I want to see an expansion in new highs as well as more sustained dollar weakness to have more conviction in adding to my crypto exposure. For now, I think remaining patient and allowing the market setup is the most prudent course of action in the short term.