This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Welcomeback to our latest "Under The Hood" column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended November 26, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our "Minor Leaguers" column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Messy For Longer
Many of the strongest areas for global equity markets are failing to hold their breakouts, or simply reversing at logical levels of overhead supply. The Global Dow is a pretty well-rounded representation of the world stock market. As you can see in the chart, buyers couldn’t get it done for the third time this year. Sellers are back in control for now, and with prices back in their former range, there is no directional edge over the near term. Our bias is neutral, and we’re expecting further sideways action. If and when prices reclaim those year-to-date highs, we want to be long. This is simply the case for most stocks right now.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall Of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness. Due to the recent volatility, we’re going to do that today.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
Cotton and coffee continue to rip. Crude oil and the energy space are grinding higher. Live cattle are breaking out. Even precious metals are starting to catch a bid.
Fast forward to today, and Ags have emerged as the clear leaders over the near term. They’ve been ripping higher while the majority of the commodity space retests critical levels of former resistance and continues to consolidate.
The fact that grains, softs, and livestock are marching higher while their peers are under pressure, tells us this is an area we should focus on for long opportunities. It’s where the relative strength is right now.
What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.
This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.
It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!
The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.
While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…
So, let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes. Our ultimate goal is to discuss the most important themes and developments that are currently playing out in markets around the world.
There's been plenty of action these past few weeks. Let's kick things off with stocks and try to make sense of what we're seeing.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
You already know how we feel about the US Bond Market.
We like the short side when it comes to treasuries.
Lately, we’ve been keeping a close eye on the long end of the curve since it hasn’t kept pace with shorter-term yields. Though this is still the case, the 30-year yield has found support in recent weeks as rates continue to rise across the curve.
This should keep the bulls happy for now as an environment where long rates are making new lows is not supportive of higher prices for risk assets.
But that’s not what’s happening. We remain in a rising-rate environment and don’t see signs of that changing anytime soon. As long as this remains the case, we want to be selling bonds and betting on higher prices for risk assets.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Stocks up and down the cap scale were breaking out to new highs and energy futures were resolving higher from multi-year bases -- all while emerging-market and commodity-centric currencies approached year-to-date lows.
Something wasn’t right.
We’d expect these risk-on currencies to catch higher given their strong correlation with other risk assets. But this hasn’t been the case. In fact, seeing as currency markets had been out of sync with other asset classes for months, we really didn’t want to overthink this development.
But what appeared to be another mixed intermarket signal proved a valuable warning.
Fast-forward to today and the weakness that was evident among emerging-market currencies is spreading to stocks and commodities. Small-caps and crude oil are retesting critical breakout levels, and cyclical stocks are failing to sustain their recent moves.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
