In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
New Lows Streak is Over
One thing that has been consistent this year is seeing more stocks hit new lows than new highs. We’ve witnessed this kind of bear market behavior every single week of 2022. Up until now, that is. For the first time all year, more stocks made new highs than new lows last week. This is a huge development because if the market truly bottomed and we’re in the early stages of a new uptrend, we’re going to need more new highs than new lows. It’s just math. Following 37 straight weeks of net new lows, seeing this streak come to an end is yet another big piece of evidence in favor of the bull camp.
The most significant insider activity on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by QH Hungary Holdings Ltd, which reported purchases worth roughly $9.2 million in Quaker Chemical $KWR.
The firm now owns 4,440,989 shares, representing a roughly 22.50% ownership stake.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
Click table to enlarge view
We filtered out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.
Everything has been working lately, as the weight of the evidence continues to stack up in favor of the bottom being in for the current cycle.
The short-term breadth thrusts in late July were among the first signs of it. This week, we’re seeing new highs spread out to longer time frames, such as our 63-day indicators.
The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has rebounded higher after undercutting the critical 15% level. This has marked significant bottoms in the past.
Participation has spread beyond growth stocks over the near term, as materials and energy are also rallying and reclaiming key levels. We can say the same for crypto.
And, most importantly, we’re finally seeing upside resolutions. Not only that, they’re holding.
Some of our favorite charts right now are short-term reversal patterns. We’re seeing them all over in growth stocks.
The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by the executive chairman of Energy Transfer LP $ET, who revealed a purchase worth $12.6 million.
Director Matthew R. Cohler revealed an insider buy worth $991,484 in KKR & Co $KKR.
Today’s most significant insider transaction report is another Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A.
Buffet continues to increase his position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY, as he just reported an additional purchase, this one worth roughly $390 million.
Welcome to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended August 5, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers scan.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual...