Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended February 4, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Rates Spike Around The Globe
Interest rates are on the rise, and it’s not just in the US and Europe. The Japanese 10-year yield hit its highest level in over five years last week. Like Germany, Japan is now back in positive territory after a half-decade of offering negative yields. All of this action is supportive of the new highs we’re seeing from the US 10-year yield. With rates on the rise around the world and the question turning into “how high” – as opposed to “if” – the FED will hike, it’s time to look for opportunities in the areas of the market that benefit the most from a rising rate environment.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
For most of my career, I've listened to fundamental analysts make the argument that investors should be overweight international stocks because they're "cheaper" than US stocks.
This has been the case for a long time now, and it's merely a function of the fact that there are far more value and cyclical stocks overseas.
But, since value stocks have been out of favor for so long, ex-US stocks have severely underperformed domestic markets.
Growth has been the place to be for the last decade, and for this reason the alpha has been with the tech-heavy US stock market over its global peers.
But now that we're seeing the tide shift in favor of value, we're also seeing early signs of reversals in the US versus the world relative trends.
There's still more work to be done before we have conviction that we want to favor international stocks, but the weight of the evidence continues to move in that direction.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.
These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve.
That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."
Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
We held our February Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can access and re-watch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The path of least resistance is higher for yields, as the market continues to punish investors for buying bonds.
As long as that’s the case, we want to look for short opportunities when approaching the bond market.
Since the shorter end of the curve has ripped higher, the moves in these contracts and ETFs are extended. They simply don't offer favorable risk/reward trade setups at current levels.
We’re better off looking for ways to play rising yields further out on the curve in this environment.
We’re going to discuss how to do just that by covering a few charts that are setting up on the short side.
First up is the 30-year Treasury bond futures:
T-bonds are carving out a multi-year head-and-shoulders top above their pivot lows from last March.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Commodities and cyclical assets have remained resilient, defying headwinds from the US dollar for nearly a year.
But the US Dollar Index $DXY is sliding lower as evidence mounts in favor of further weakness…
Could those headwinds soon fade away?
Today, we’re going to highlight some critical developments and discuss what they mean for the US dollar, stocks, and commodities in the weeks and months ahead.
Let’s dive in!
First is a chart of the US Dollar Index $DXY:
Its inability to hold above the November 2021 highs screams "failed breakout!"
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
