My favorite one lately is when the bears tell people that US Stock Market Breadth is deteriorating. It's hilarious.
Their sorry excuse for a thesis has them suggesting that there are fewer stocks participating to the upside in the U.S. Stock Market, when nothing could be further from the truth. I've been pounding the table that we continue to see an expansion in participation, which is characteristic of an uptrend and we have wanted to be buying stocks very very aggressively. That has worked out well. See here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
Sector rotation. Sector rotation. Sector rotation. I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but today's theme is once again...sector rotation. This time it's Transports being helped back to their January highs by an improving Airline sector. We've spoken about the relative strength in Railroads and Trucking stocks, and acknowledged the relative under-performance in Airlines two months ago, but the data has slowly shifted.
We also pointed out that although Airlines were the worst of the Transport stocks, they were hanging in there on an absolute basis. Sure, there were weak names within the sector like American Airlines, but there were also strong stocks like United Airlines. Today, however, we're seeing the relative performance of the group trying to bottom and the absolute performance of even the weakest names improve.
During our August Members-Only Conference Call we discussed a lot of the big-picture trends from around the world and in India, but we wanted to do a long post discussing what we're seeing in the small-cap space. In this post I'll cover what we're seeing in the index itself, as well as get into some of its most actionable components.
Over the weekend as I was doing my run through the entire S&P 500, I noticed some emerging strength in areas that aren't quite as sexy as Medical Devices or Railroads (kidding). Instead, what I found was a number of potential long opportunities in the Real Estate, Utilities, and Telecom sectors. While the long-term relative performance of these sectors is nothing to write home about, as I explained in my Agribusiness post, I still think it's important to point out strength on an absolute basis because it contributes to the weight of the evidence and provides value to those who may have a portfolio approach that includes those areas of the market.
With that said, let's take a quick look at what I'm seeing.
During our August Members-Only Conference Call we discussed a lot of the big-picture trends from around the world and in India, but we wanted to do a long post discussing what we're seeing in the mid-cap space. In this post I'll cover what we're seeing in the index itself, as well as get into some of its most actionable components.
On May 1st we spoke about seasonality and why the traditional "Sell In May and Go Away talk is a great headline, but not a great investment strategy this year. While most think that seasonality data is useful to position ahead of what are typically weak or strong periods, we find that the real signal occurs when the market does not adhere to its historical patterns. Now that we're a bit more than half way through the seasonally weak May-October period, we thought it'd be helpful to look at the market's performance thus far and see what it could possibly mean for the rest of the year.
I live in a funny world where I can just write some things on my phone or computer and people all over the world begin commenting on it. These conversations can last for months, even years. Those who know me understand that I try to do my very best everyday to look at the market as nothing but letters and math. It shouldn't matter whether we're long Apple or short soybean futures.
Some assets strike a cord with people and make them feel differently. There is usually a popular figure involved or hot product and sometimes even conspiracy theories. It's fascinating to watch. Gold is definitely one of those. The crazies come out whenever you mention gold, bull or bear doesn't matter. Natural Gas used to be like that 12-15 years ago, but not since it lost 90% of its value over the past decade. This one is the bitcoin of energy.
The Retail Sector ETF $XRT just made new all-time daily closing highs. I was going to write an extensive piece on how we got here and the lessons we can take away about knowing what we own and exercising professional skepticism when we hear gross generalizations like "retail is dying", but I don't think I even need to make it that complicated.
It's not about being right, it's about making money. There's a difference and I think that gets forgotten too often. We want to position ourselves where we have the highest probabilities for success as well as where the risk vs reward is skewed in our favor. The goal is not to be right every time. The goal is to be profitable. That's why we're always thinking worst case scenario: always a risk level and always a target.
Today I want to focus in on what we're seeing in the S&P500 because I think that from a risk management standpoint, this 2780-2800 level is a big one today from a structural perspective. Until now, we've used 7000 in the Nasdaq100 and 2650 in the S&P500 as our lines in the sand. We've only wanted to be long if we were above those levels and that has worked out very well. Moving forward, I've identified some higher levels that we need to monitor.
As part of our ongoing partnership with Investor's Business Daily we have added all of the IBD50 components to our equity research coverage. We are updating our Chartbook on a weekly basis and members of Allstarcharts have access to that workbook here.
Today, I wanted to discuss what we're seeing from this group to identify the overall trend for U.S. stocks and also to find trading ideas to profit from that directional move.
This index is made up of stocks showing both relative strength and positive momentum, in addition to other factors that play a role in adding or removing components from the list of 50. What attracts me to this group, however, is the relative strength and positive momentum, just to be clear.
This is the Innovator IBD50 ETF $FFTY which to me, is still in an uptrend. We want to continue to err on the bullish side of this ETF and the group as a whole:
If you've been reading our blog for a while, you're probably familiar with our process and how we identify reward/risk scenarios that are ridiculously skewed in our favor. With that said, the way we accomplish that doesn't always look exactly the same. Sometimes we're buying breakouts and trading with the trend, other times we're trading against the trend for mean reversion, and other times it's some combination of strategies.
