We've been bullish precious metals since the 4th quarter last year and even coming into 2019. We're not gold bugs, thank goodness. The risk vs reward was just skewed in favor of the long side, for a variety of reasons.

One of those was the fact that commercial hedgers were actually net long. They're never net long, and literally always hedged. For me, these Commitment of Traders reports are usually just noise, EXCEPT when they're at extremes. We want to pay attention when the rubber-band is stretched. And so we did, and Gold ripped!

Now we have the opposite scenario. Commercial Hedgers last month had on their largest net short position in history (345,145 contracts):

Think about how well everything is going this year! The S&P500 is up almost 20%. Bonds are up 22% and even Gold is up 17%! Heck Bitcoin has more than doubled! Can things get any better than this???

This is my Q4 2019 Playbook.

In our last Chart of The Week, we took a look at Pharmaceuticals to identify opportunities on the short side of that sector.

Today we're taking a step back and at the performance of Emerging Market equities as an asset class.

How are you liking the day to day swings in the market? Is it too much for you? Go through this checklist and make sure these questions are answered before moving forward.

Today, I thought it would add value to take a step back and see what's happening in the market bigger picture. They love distracting you with noisy headlines, but the way we approach it is: Whenever In Doubt, Zoom Out!

Here's how we see things in Stocks bigger picture:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.

It seems almost everyone was on the same page here, getting involved in some way, shape, or form on the long side.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

In late August we wrote about the weakness in Biotech and its coming breakdown on an absolute basis.

Now that we've gotten that breakdown, let's take a look at the entire Healthcare sector and identify what risks remain.

Stocks are still trying to break out of this massive range since early 2018. After some selling early this week, the range is still intact. I think this chart of the Global 100 Index tells the story best:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Today we're taking a look at one of the most important Emerging Markets out there, Brazil, on an absolute and relative basis.

Let's see what's going on there.

Today we're looking at our updated Monthly Chartbooks to identify the structural trends in India's major indices, sectors, and stocks.

This is a question I get a lot from friends and family or someone I just met that knows what I do for work.

What's funny is that they don't ask it quite like that. They won't ask, "JC how do I make money in the market?", even though that's what they really mean to say. It's usually more like, "Which pot stock do I buy?" or "Which Crypto Currency should I buy?", depending on where we are in the cycle. It's rarely an IF, and more of a Which One?

The way I see it, you can add the same amount of money every month for decades and just let it compound. If you're disciplined enough to do it (most of you aren't), I can see a good case for that strategy. But if you're looking to get into more specific trades or investments, I think a well-defined risk vs reward strategy is the only way to profit. If you can't manage risk responsibly you'll be gone soon.

Here's my take:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The TSX Composite Index is attempting to hold above its 2018 highs after breaking out earlier this month.

In early August we wrote a Canada Update for Premium Members outlining ideas (and another post 2 weeks ago), many of which are working well, however, we're following up on this post today with a stock on our watchlist that's become actionable.