Vedanta Ltd. has begun the process of a voluntary delisting of its shares from the public exchange, with the promoter group planning to buy out the remaining ~49% of non-promoter shares it doesn't currently own.

We spoke about Vedanta Ltd. in our Chart Summit India presentation last month as a stock setup we liked on the long side, so given this news, we wanted to revisit that setup and see what lessons could be taken away and applied in future situations like this one.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last month we wrote about the lackluster move from some of the cyclical sectors off of their March lows, particularly Industrials and Financials.

We continue to see weakness out of these areas over both long and short-term timeframes as Financials are pressing on all-time lows relative to the S&P 500 and Industrials just made a fresh relative 20-year low.

In this post, we'll take a look at these underperforming areas and share some trade ideas to express our bearish thesis.

First, let's take a look at the long-term relative weakness we just mentioned.

Click chart to enlarge view.

Normally one day of price action doesn't get our attention, but given our cautious view of stocks from a structural perspective, it's worth outlining why today's candle in the Nasdaq 100 could potentially be a big deal for stocks all around the world.

If you haven't heard by now, the Online Retail Index broke out to new all-time highs. We're not exactly seeing that from a broad-based perspective. This is not happening domestically and it's certainly not happening around the world. The rotation we're seeing among sectors and industry groups is real. Today we're going to focus specifically on online retail.

The way I see it, the question here is simple. Is the massive reversion, and return to these prior highs, "the" move? Or was that just a multi-year consolidation, and the move is just getting started?

Here's what that looks like:

Click on Charts to Zoom In

The weight of the evidence remains mixed and suggests that there will be winners on the long side, winners on the short side, and a lot of stocks in the middle that aren't going anywhere.

An easy way to view that is through our five bull market barometers, which continue to suggest we're in a bear market. As a result, we're focused on the best opportunities on both the long and short side.

In this post, we're going to outline which area of the market we're looking to short and add several individual stock trade setups to our list of open ideas.

Let's start at the sector level. Nifty Commodities remain below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its 2020 decline at 2,635. With momentum in a bearish range and stuck below this level, then it makes sense to be erring on the short side and looking for a move back towards the lows near 2,075

Click on chart to enlarge view. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

For the week ended Friday, May 8, 2020:

Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Many of the relative trends in stocks that have been in place for a long time have come into question recently as they're showing signs of maturing due in part to the change in leadership we wrote about this week.

In this post, we'll highlight two structural intermarket themes that have remained robust throughout this tumultuous time for equity markets.

The first relative trend that hasn't slowed down at all is the relentless outperformance of the US over the rest of the world. Our first table shows the Wilshire 5000 (DWC) dominating every Global Index over just about every timeframe, from this week to the trailing year.

Click table to enlarge view.

The headline you'll hear is that unemployment rates are soaring to unprecedented levels. What I always like to point out is that stocks crashed months ago, collectively factoring in just that. Stocks are a discounting mechanism. It's more obvious today than ever, and I think this is a nice reminder. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

There aren't too many charts in the Equity Markets breaking out of decade-long bases on an absolute basis right now...

This week's Mystery Chart was though, and the vast majority of you were buying it against former resistance turned support. We agree with that approach and would be doing the same here.

Thanks as always to all those who participated, but there's just one catch...

The chart was inverted! This means most of you were actually selling the breakdown in the Latin America 40 ETF (ILF).

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

There has been a lot of talk about the potential implications on the broader market if Mega-Cap Growth and Technology stocks were to lose their leadership. Since they have been responsible for driving much of the gains in the major averages for years now... we can only ask ourselves, who might pick up the slack if and when this happens?

In this post, we're going to analyze the top-performing areas today and compare them to their strength before the market crashed in February and March.

We'll also look at the leaders from back then and see how they're holding up today.

This will give us an idea of whether we really are undergoing a change in leadership or not, and if so, where the new areas of strength are.

With Financials, arguably America's most important sector, making lower lows relative to the rest of the market, it's hard to see them emerge as new leaders. New decade+ relative lows in $XLF is not what you want to see if you think the stock market is going a lot higher. It's actually the opposite.

I look at Regional Banks and wonder, Is this a major bottom? Or is this just a normal consolidation within an ongoing trend? So then I look at momentum in a bearish regime, and its parent sector, Financials, breaking down to the lowest levels relative to the S&P500 since March of 2009:

Bull market? Bear market? Sideways market? That is the question on everyone's minds.

We've put together the five most important charts we're monitoring to help answer that question.