Welcomeback to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ending January 8, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.
In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.
We're back this month with another edition of the Josh & JC show.
This is where I sit down with my boy Josh Brown and talk about the most important Monthly Charts I see around the world.
I love doing this monthly show. Josh and I have been good friends for the better part of the past 2 decades. He knows me really well by now, and I think I've got a pretty good handle on him too, although he certainly finds ways to surprise me quite often.
On this month's show, we take a look at Financials potentially breaking out. One of the leaders is Goldman Sachs, as $GS is now back above its 2007 highs. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary is breaking out to new all-time highs relative to Consumer Staples, which is consistent with higher stock prices. But that doesn't mean that Staples can't do well on an absolute basis. And finally, Commodities are breaking out. Crude Oil is back above its 2016 lows. And with all of this bullish talk, what's it going to take to position ourselves more defensively? I lay out the 4 most important signals that we're watching.
The first section dives deep into the US Stock Market and Market breadth, then we discuss the International Markets and specific Factors around the world. Next we go into U.S. Sectors and the best looking Industry Groups. In the second half of the report, we dive into the FICC space (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) and their Intermarket Relationships. Finally we finish up with Cryptos, Options and overall Market Sentiment.
You can skip right to the trade ideas here if you'd like, or give the full report a read!
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The weight of the evidence continues to overwhelmingly lie in favor of the bulls.
The major indices are above important levels and are well on their way to achieving our targets. We're seeing sector rotation into offensive, cyclical areas of the market, and away from defensive, which is all confirming these new highs.
Commodities are showing incredible strength in the face of extreme positioning, reflecting the control buyers have in these markets.
I'm not sure if you noticed, but the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund just went out at the highest weekly close in its history.
For you youngsters, this is a big deal.
You see, when I first got in this business, it was the Summer of 2003. Young JC was living in New York City for the first time, downtown in TriBeCa, ready to take on the world.
I was just an intern (envelope stuffer) at the time, at a firm called Merrill Lynch, which later went on to disappear with the likes of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. At that time though, in 2003, this gig was a big deal.
Anyway, for the next 4 years, Emerging Markets AVERAGED A 100% RETURN PER YEAR.
Yes you read that right. My career got started with Emerging Markets being the best place to be on earth. That stuck with me.
If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.”
The glorified gossip columns and cartoon networks keep proving to be the equivalent of sugar and trans fat packed fast food.
Don't be mentally obese.
Stick to price.
It's better for the portfolio.
It's better for the soul.
It's a Bull Market you know...
I'm not sure if you've noticed, but owning stocks and spending our time looking for stocks to buy has been a much better idea than shorting stocks and spending your time looking for stocks to sell.
It's not even close.
Just think back at all the people who told us to do the opposite every day, every week and every month since the Spring.
This week on the podcast, I'm thrilled to have Jeff Weiss, CMT join me for a really fun chat. If you know Jeff, you already know that he's quite the character. The stories he has from his early days in the 1960s and 70s are awesome. Have you ever heard of a squawk box? How about quote machines that you had to stand in line to use, and would still only get one stock quote at a time?
In this conversation Jeff shares old stories about how he got his first job, cold-calling CEOs of different firms until one of them finally gave him a shot. Even if you're not into Technical Analysis, and you're just a fan of the market, or business in general, this episode is for you.
Make sure to check out Jeff's book: Relationship Investing, named "Best Investment Book of the Year" by the 2018 Stock Trader’s Almanac.
This was a ton of fun. Big shout out to Jeff Weiss for joining me on the show.
When stocks are in strong uptrends, they don't just do well on an absolute basis, but they also tend to outperform their alternatives. We talk about that a lot around here.
Today's chart has to show the Gold Fund breaking down to new all-time lows relative to the Nasdaq, as well as U.S. Treasury Bonds making new all-time relative lows as Interest Rates keep spiking.
Here is that chart showing the Nasdaq breaking out to new highs relative its alternatives:
It's a new year and I'm back on the TV to chat with Catherine Murray at BNN Bloomberg. I wish I was in Toronto to shoot this live so I could get some Thai food or something afterwards, but we'll settle for a Skype call in this one! Man I love visiting Toronto.
Anyway, I don't think there's been anyone on her show who has been as bullish stocks as we have over the past 6-8 months. I even asked her, but she just laughed. Remember Just Buy Them Baby! from July?
What's changed since then? Only additional sector rotation, further breadth expansion and unparalleled participation (and new leadership) from global markets. Are you not entertained?
Check out the interview in full. We touch on some important points:
This week Howard and I talk about the evolution of markets. There are new ways for investors to allocate money almost every day. SPACs are back! More IPOs this year, and many of them going up. New tickers every day.
What do we do about it? How can we get involved? We discuss all of that in this video!
As we enter 2021, what are the areas we need to be watching? Howard thinks there are 3 major themes to be long for the next decade:
Fintech, Healthcare & Education.
It's hard for me to disagree, especially from a Technical perspective.
