I'm going to disappoint the options eggheads with my opinions here, because I'm going on gut feel.

I haven't done any exhaustive research. I haven't done any volatility skew analysis or 3D modeling. I haven't reviewed seasonality patterns, or dug deep into open interest imbalances.

No, I haven't done any of that.

Simply trusting my gut, it feels to me fear of stock market risk is being overplayed and everyone who is scared of headlines, trouble in the White House, geopolitics, etc (which seems is nearly everyone) has already fully hedged their risk or has put on speculative short positions and are thus natural buyers into any dips to profitably cover their positions -- which in effect helps to put a floor under equities.

Think about it.

Until proven otherwise, it is irresponsible to be positioning for a bear market right now. The talking heads and twitterverse all seem to be rooting for -- cheering for, even -- the S&P 500 to break it's 200-day moving average and crash further from there.

It's ok to root for any scenario you'd like, but it's simply unprofitable to act on opinions (yours or others) until there is a basis of fact to back you up. And the only facts we focus on here are those presented and derived by price and volume.

The weight of the evidence still points to higher prices in equities over the intermediate term, and as such we're hunting for bullish trades. Today's hunt yielded a developing opportunity in Caterpillar $CAT.

It's no secret that JC and I are extremely bullish on stocks. Just like you'd like to see in a bullish environment, we're being led higher by tech stocks. And there's no better barometer of health in the tech sector than seeing old bellweather Microsoft still hanging around new all-time highs and cruising comfortably above it's 200 day moving average.

This opportunity could not be more simple. Here's JC's take:

Silver has been consolidating in an ever tightening range and signs are showing that a big move away from this consolidation is setting up. And this week, the Silver iShares ETF ($SLV) may have tipped it's hand to which direction the next big move will happen.

And that move is up.