I'm on vacation and trying to stay away from the screens as much as possible this week, but you broke out on Wednesday and today you're just hanging there, baiting me into getting involved.
Anyone who traded in the late 90's only referred to Microsoft stock as "Mister Softee." It was stupid, as many stock nicknames were, but that's what it was. And you seemingly couldn't go a day without hearing "Mister Softee is making new highs!" from summer 1998 until early 2000.
I almost have PTSD from it.
Fast forward to today. Microsoft doesn't get the same media attention today as it did back then, now being overshadowed by the Amazons, Facebooks, Googles, Apples, and Teslas, of the world. But the price action is definitely giving me flashbacks.
And the ASC research team has a gaudy 323 price target for Microsoft $MSFT over the next several months which has me interested in playing along with options.
As August gets under way, it’s time to review positions with August options that remain open (haven’t already hit profit targets or been stopped out).
Most trades I put on for All Star Options tend to have a minimum duration of 30 days (short premium plays) and often as long as 6-8 months (for long premium plays). As options approach expiration, greeks like theta and gamma start to become my enemy and whipsaw my P/L. Therefore, as options and spreads get into the expiration month, my best practice is to put each position on notice — it’s time to take action.
Maybe it's because I've got some leftover pizza in my fridge which is on my mind for lunch today, but I've been taking a look at a pizza play the research team discussed during the recent All Star Charts Monthly Conference Call and it's got my mouth watering.
The title of this trade plan is a modified take on a famous old floor traders saw. Basically, when experienced floor traders saw the entire pit screaming to hit the same bid or offer, the rule of thumb was to give 'em what they want. Take the other side and close your position when all those same lemmings try to hit the exits at the same time too.
It was the second easiest money on the floor (first was "trading against paper" --- which is you and me.)
The trade I'm putting on the board is a loose take on this idea. But instead of fading direction, we're going to fade the volatility premium priced into Gold options today.
Another quick little update on the NKLA position we put on a couple weeks ago.
Our patience from our original entry timing has paid off, and the directional move we were playing for has happened. $NKLA has traded down to our target price of $35.
JC's been pounding the table to me about Abbott Labs $ABT for a couple weeks now.
I've been slow playing it, waiting for some new highs. We're getting them now. It's time to get involved.
The base $ABT formed over the last three months is a thing of beauty. And the fact that it's in a hot sector and printing new all-time highs is only sweetener. Then when you add in the fact that options premiums are at the lowest levels since March and I'm starting to get pretty excited.
I don't prefer getting long stocks that aren't breaking through to some kind of major new high or an all-time high. But every so often the stars align to play for the end of a major downtrend with some clearly defined levels of support to lean against.
We're finding that right now in the recently maligned Marijuana stocks space.
Sometimes, the generous idea guys at All Star Charts just happen across something that immediately catches their eye and they post it up quick on twitter.
Today Steve Strazza offered this up on Virtu Financial $VIRT:
This is Virtu Financial $VIRT, a HFT which benefits from the wider bid/ask spreads and higher volumes that accompany periods of heightened volatility... price is attempting to break out above its YTD highs ~26 pic.twitter.com/1ZmRO29QwS
That base, and the low volatility in options immediately caught my attention too. These are my favorite setups: Blue skies up above coupled with low vol.
So I'm keeping it simple and swinging for the fences.