Gold futures have been down in 6 out of the last 8 sessions since the winner of the U.S. Presidential Election was announced.
The US Dollar Index $DXY has been adding fuel to the selling pressure as it has screamed higher toward the upper bound of a multi-year range.
However, the dollar is entering one of its weakest seasonal periods of the year and should start serving as a tailwind for our shiny rocks.
And if the dollar is about to roll over, our equal-weight basket of precious metal stocks will likely resolve its multi-decade base and make new all-time highs:
It wasn't clear how the price would react to our target, but sure enough, the sellers showed up right on cue.
But the weight of the evidence continues to suggest this bull market has legs and it's better to spend our time looking for buying opportunities, not selling opportunities.
Let's talk about the recent price action and what it means for our portfolios:
We all know it has been a bull market, but how sustainable is it?
In today's Gold Rush video, we addressed the elephant in the room. Is this a bubble?
Additionally, we revisited some of the greatest bubbles of all-time and tied it back to the current environment.
One of our favorite historic bubble examples is silver in the late 1970s:
The Hunt brothers controlled around 1/2 of the world's supply of silver and sparked a 900% rally over the course of 2-years. Over the next few years, silver retraced the entire preceding move as it collapsed by 90%.
Finally, we discussed a few strategies for riding a bubble higher and profiting from all the madness.
Despite bond yields and dollars screaming higher and reaching overbought conditions, stocks and precious metals rallied during what is historically the worst time of the year.
A couple of weeks ago, we talked about Silver futures attempting to emerge from a multi-year accumulation pattern and potentially retesting the former all-time high.
Last week, Silver made a new multi-decade high in absolute terms and broke a multi-year downtrend line relative to Gold.
And if the 47th element is about to blast off, we should look closer at the Junior Silver Miners.
But first, check out this chart of the Silver/Gold ratio:
Despite the recent volatility, gold continues its steady ascent, unaffected by the broader market noise.
As seasonals have shifted and new leadership has come and gone this year, gold remains resilient, moving through market regimes with ease.
Whether stocks rally or risk-off sentiment prevails, gold thrives. The yellow metal has been red-hot all year.
In these times, the saying goes, "there is no fever like gold fever."
But, is there any evidence of this kind of euphoria among investors yet?
While the COT report suggests sentiment may be overstretched, let’s talk about what we’re seeing on the ground.
There’s little buzz about gold in the financial media. No bold predictions of $10K gold on magazine covers, no headlines touting it as the ultimate safe haven in an impending crisis—signals that often show up at market tops. We’re just not seeing it.
For context, in 2011, fears of currency depreciation were rampant. The covers of TIME magazine and Smart Money allow us to remember this moment. They came right at the top.
Large Speculators haven't owned this much Gold since 2020. We have the data.
In precious metal bull markets, it's perfectly normal for Commercial Hedgers to offset their physical positions by shorting the underlying futures contracts.
We also tend to see the Speculators build massive net-long positions.
Check out the extreme Commercial Hedger net-short position in Gold and Silver futures:
This is as extreme as it gets. So, with the positioning so stretched, who is left to buy?