From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
One of the most important themes these days is the rotation between growth and value stocks. Groups like energy and financials have been breaking to new highs while growth and tech indexes have come under serious pressure.
So far, 2022 has been a true tale of two markets.
While cyclicals and value stocks appear to be gearing up for a momentous year, it looks like the party is finally coming to an end for the growth trade.
We want to lean on the value-heavy leadership groups for long opportunities in 2022. As for growth, we think it's likely to remain messy as interest rates continue to rise.
When we look beneath the surface at growth and value stocks right now, our breadth data is confirming the action we’re seeing at the sector level.
Let’s dive in and discuss...
Here's one way to visualize the opposing paths of large-cap value and large-cap growth right now. This indicator shows us the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages for each of these indexes:
Instead of fresh legs higher, investors were dealt a handful of downside reversals and failed moves. Last week, we went from discussing breakouts and new highs for stocks... to throwbacks and retests of old ranges. This all happened in the matter of a few trading sessions.
A lot has changed in a short period. In times like these, it’s important to take a good look under the hood to see what market internals are suggesting.
As we reviewed our breadth chartbook today, we asked ourselves the following questions:
Are we seeing a notable expansion in new lows? Is it enough that we should be worried?
Let’s take a look beneath the surface and see if we can find some answers!
First, let’s check in on the 21-day and 63-day lows for the S&P 500:
The market has been in a corrective mode for a little over a month. While this correction has been gaining some momentum, we took a look at the breadth internals of the market at this stage to dig a little deeper.
One important factor when the market was making new highs, was a lack of breadth expansion.
Now the important factor when the market is making lows is breadth expansion.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a handful of major indexes, like small and mid-caps, resolve higher and kick off a fresh up leg. But breadth has really cooled off since then, as participation has been declining despite the major averages rallying.
This week, we’re finally seeing that weakness show up at the index level -- particularly from SMIDs and cyclicals.
When we were reviewing our breadth charts, we noticed the deterioration in energy sector internals has been particularly bad. Not only is breadth not confirming the new highs from energy stocks… but there are actually some pretty ugly divergences in our new high indicators.
Energy stocks are currently vulnerable, sitting just above their breakout level at former resistance. Considering the lack of support from internals, this group is on failed breakout watch.
Let’s take a look under the hood and discuss what we’re seeing.
Energy has been coiling in a continuation pattern above its year-to-date highs around 56 for over a month now. You can see this in the upper pane of this chart:
Despite the new highs from almost all the large-cap major averages, we had yet to see new highs in their corresponding advance-decline lines.
We also hadn’t experienced the kind of expansion in participation that we’d expect to accompany the indexes to new price highs.
Our new high indicators were still muted, even on shorter timeframes.
But that was last week. This week, mid-caps and small-caps have joined their large-cap peers at new record highs after making decisive upside resolutions from their year-to-date ranges.
And guess what? We’re finally getting that breadth confirmation we were missing.
Let’s talk about it.
First, here’s a quick update on the advance-decline lines that we covered in last week's column:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
While breadth has improved in recent weeks and months, the bulls still have their work cut out for them.
When we consider all our breadth indicators in aggregate, the evidence remains mixed. What else is new!? It’s been that way for the majority of this year.
Many of the major indexes made new all-time highs this week. Meanwhile, some advance-decline lines are moving higher, but others are moving lower. Some are at the top of their range, but others are at the bottom of theirs.
The advance-decline line measures stock market breadth based on cumulative net advances. In other words, it takes the number of advancing stocks on a given day and subtracts the number of declining stocks. That number is then added to the previous day’s value, creating a cumulative advance-decline line.
A/D line divergences occur when price is making new highs and the A/D line is NOT.
