Markets don’t always trend higher or lower. In fact, traders often deal with churn – which sometimes is nothing more than a range-bound mess.
"Sideways" is a trend that's all too easy to forget after last year’s historic volatility. Even bonds became risk assets in 2022!
I found it odd when bonds failed to react to last week’s rate hike along with other long-duration assets.
But the lack of bond market volatility might be exactly what risk assets, especially stocks, need right now.
Check out the chart of the US 10-year yield:
The US benchmark rate continues to hold above 3.40%. This has been our line in the sand for months, coinciding with the June pivot highs from last year.
To be clear, I don’t care what he said. Instead of hanging on the Fed Chair's words, I prefer to focus on the markets. I find it more enjoyable.
But, boy, did markets respond!
The most striking aspect of yesterday’s reaction was highlighted by the relative strength of growth stocks.
Check out the overlay chart of the US T-Bond ETF $TLT and the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK: These charts tend to move tick-for-tick, as long-duration assets benefit from the same market environment.
The near-term direction of US interest rates will play a major role in how market conditions resolve in the coming weeks. This is a chart you want to monitor closely...
Sure, risk appetite is returning as long-duration assets catch a bid.
The ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK, Tesla $TSLA, and even the Emerging Markets Bond ETF $EMB show impressive near-term strength.
Nevertheless, the overall market is still a range-bound mess…
The S&P 500 churns below overhead supply. A decisive downside resolution in the US Dollar Index $DXY has yet to occur. And commodities – at least at the index level – refuse to violate key support levels.
I doubt the markets will clean themselves up in the coming weeks. But if you want insight into the near-term direction of the major asset classes, keep an eye on this one chart…
Here it is – a triple-pane look at the yields on the five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury bonds:
It’s impossible to ignore – investors are reaching for risk.
Biotech stocks are catching higher. Copper futures are working on their tenth up-day in a row. Even the Emerging Market HY Bond ETF $EMHY is breaking to 7-month highs as it completes a multi-month base.
And don’t forget about Silver! Gold’s crazy cousin has proven by far the best-performing asset since the US dollar peaked last fall. Strength among these market areas indicates a healthy risk appetite.
I can’t overlook these signs of a constructive bottoming process, especially considering the next chart…
Check out the Emerging Market Bond ETF $EMB relative to the US Treasuries ETF $IEF:
Benchmark rates in Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal hit fresh multi-year highs last week. Interestingly, the US 10-year yield did not. And neither did the two-, 5-, or 30-year yields.
I’m not claiming US yields have put in a lower high. It’s far too early to assume that. A downside resolution below last month’s pivot lows needs to materialize before making that claim.
Nevertheless, the lack of confirmation from US interest rates is intriguing, especially as European yields turn lower this week.
Check out the triple-pane chart of Developed European 10-year yields (Germany, France, and Spain):
Perhaps 2022 marks the worst on record, or at least the past 100 years. Nevertheless, we’ve all witnessed extraordinary selling pressure in what has historically acted as a safe-haven asset.
Despite the dismal returns and destruction of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the bond market continues to instill valuable lessons in those willing to listen and learn.
Check out these three poignant reminders courtesy of the bond market…
The chart below highlights the five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury yields finding support at their respective year-to-date trendlines and pivot highs from the spring.
