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Carbon Credit Demand Increases

May 25, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.

Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.

For instance…

The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:

KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.

Interestingly, the similarities between the carbon allowances, copper versus gold, and silver versus gold charts are uncanny. All three are violating multi-year downtrend lines, suggesting bullish trend reversals and a risk-on market environment.

We like KRBN long above 35, targeting 56.

That’s it for today. We’ll be back with more next week.

Thanks for reading.

Consumer Hits 10-year Lows

May 25, 2024

One thing we know for sure is that stock prices go up and stock prices go down.

Sometimes they go up mostly in unison, and other times most of them trade lower together.

In most cases, however, some stocks are rising while other stocks are not, and possibly even falling.

We call these "Normal" markets.

Check out last week's Conference Call Video, Charts & Trades for all the details on how we're playing it.

You can see here in the chart below, for example, that with the S&P500 closing at new all-time highs this week, the Consumer is just not getting the memo.

In fact, Consumer Discretionary just went out at new lows relative to the S&P500.

The underperformance has not stopped. It's only gotten worse.

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International Hall of Famers (05-24-2024)

May 24, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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Junior International Hall of Famers (5-23-2024)

May 23, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let's dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

What's happening in Sonoma?

May 23, 2024

It's been a great week here in beautiful Sonoma!

Having the team together and inviting some smart friends to join us for the conversations has been amazing.

There are so many good ideas being passed around and new strategies that we're going to work on that it's exceeded all expectations.

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2 to 100 Club (05-22-2024)

May 22, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As most of you know, we use various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

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Dollar Down? The 10-Year Says “Yes!”

May 21, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are enjoying record-breaking highs.

Dr. Copper, Papa Dow, and international equity indexes such as the FTSE 100 are making the new all-time highs list. And Bitcoin will likely join them as it climbs back above 70,000.

Yet the defiant dollar remains afloat.

Nevertheless, risk-seeking behavior, Emerging Market currencies, and interest rates imply the dollar will eventually sink.

Earlier this month, the US Treasury benchmark interest rate led the US Dollar Index $DXY in violating a year-to-date trendline. 

Here’s the US 10-year yield $TNX overlaid with DXY:

Sonoma + Charts

May 21, 2024

Just a quick Programing Note:

I'm with the whole All Star Charts team in Sonoma, CA for a few days working together to figure out how to extract as much money from this market as possible.

We will not be doing a Morning Show this week, but we'll be back to our regularly scheduled programs next Tuesday after Memorial Day.

Sonoma has become a special place to me after living here with my now wife for 5 years. This was after over a decade in New York City.

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Silver Celebrates at New Decade-Highs

May 20, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Silver futures are rising to the occasion.

The silver-to-gold ratio went from posting fresh six-month highs last Monday to hitting 16-month highs by Friday’s close.

Silver is ripping on absolute and relative terms, and this can mean only one thing: 

Risk-on!