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The Hall of Famers (03-25-2022)

March 25, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Here's Why Bitcoin Is Going Higher

March 24, 2022

We do a lot of intermarket analysis here at Allstarcharts.

We include all asset classes and countries in our process.

How can we not?

I mean we have the time.

This is what we do.

And so, Australian dollar vs. Japanese yen has historically been a great indicator for me to measure risk appetite. That's not just in the currency markets but, more importantly, in stocks and commodities as well.

So, take a look at what Bitcoin has been doing when compared to aussie/yen, one of my favorite intermarket relationships...

Growth vs Value: 2022 Edition

March 24, 2022

The question keeps coming up.

As it should.

"JC, do you think this bounce in Growth has legs?"

And the answer is that yes, I think it could. There are some nice trades in these beat up growth areas that have set up very nicely.

We discussed a few of these once again on Monday night.

But I believe this one really depends on your time horizon.

Can Growth outperform for a bit? Sure.

But do I think it can do that throughout the rest of the year?

No I don't.

Here's the Large-cap Growth vs Value in black, as well as the Small-cap Growth vs Value in Blue:

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The Short Report

March 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher. We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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Buy Stocks, Sell Bonds

March 23, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

It's beginning to feel more and more like a risk-on environment out there.

Commodities are ripping higher. Stocks are digging in at critical levels. And defensive assets such as Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen are in freefall.

Despite the market volatility this year, investors continue to be rewarded for buying stocks over bonds. This has been the case for two years now, and there's no evidence it will change anytime soon.

When we look to our risk indicators and risk appetite ratios, the majority are still stuck in a range. With the stocks versus bonds ratio resolving to fresh highs, we're thinking the rest may soon follow.

But first and foremost, the price action from this classic intermarket relationship suggests that stocks are still the place to be.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 $SPY versus US T-Bond ETF $TLT:   

[Options] Nine Months to Get "High"

March 23, 2022

We don't go bottom-fishing around here often. Fighting trends is not my idea of a good time.

But every so often we'll come across a beaten-up name that has so decisively destroyed bulls that there is no fight left in them. And when all the hot money has capitulated and exited their positions, THEN it becomes a compelling idea.

One such name in the Marijuana space -- yep, that utterly annihilated sector -- has found support at a key former resistance level after a 90% pullback from all-time highs

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Aussie Rules!

March 22, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The unwind is on in the aussie!

After accumulating a historic net-long position last fall, commercial hedgers are scrambling to cover. Over the past four weeks, the smart money has trimmed its long exposure to roughly half of what it was.

This is reflected in our most recent Commitment of Traders Heatmap, which you can view here.

When positioning flips at extremes – like we’re seeing now in the Australian dollar – we want to look for opportunities to ride the emerging trend. In other words, we want to bet in the direction that commercial hedgers are currently unwinding away from. 

In the case of AUD, they recently had a historic net long position. As such, we’re looking for bullish technical characteristics to see if a long setup makes sense here.

It just so happens that things are really coming together for the aussie chart lately. We love when technicals and sentiment line up like this.

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[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording March 2022

March 21, 2022

This is the video recording of the March 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

  • The Inflation Trade Persists - In Bonds & Commodities
  • Bearish Sentiment in Stocks - Setting Up For Further Squeeze
  • Stocks for Rising Rates Showing The Most Strength
  • Metals & Mining Stocks Still Showing Leadership
  • A lot of Bullish Retests In Global Markets Ex-U.S.
  • My Favorite Gold Stocks To Own Right Now
  • Which Growth Stocks to Bottom Fish Down Here
  • Why Aussie/Yen is so important to watch right now
  • Bitcoin AVWAP at 46K

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Follow the Flow (03-21-2022)

March 21, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. 

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.