From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended July 7, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Have you heard that this bull market is only being driven by Large-cap Tech?

Well, what if Small-cap Tech broke out of this multi-year base to new all-time highs?

What then?

Would it still be just Large-cap Tech?

Here's what the index looks like and, by definition, it excludes any of the so called "Mag7" and any other Mega-cap stocks that are perhaps helping to drive other indexes.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are forecasting choppy market conditions and a significant correction for Q3.

News flash: The market has been messy for months. And we already experienced a stealth correction beneath the surface.

I’ll keep an open mind, but if commodity currencies start breaking out…

Forget about it!

Stocks have weathered the US dollar’s recent rally. 

Imagine how they’ll perform once the dollar rolls over, especially against risk-on currencies like the New Zealand dollar.

Check out the NSD/USD pair coiling within a symmetrical triangle after retesting its 2020 low:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It doesn’t matter whether we’re talking about markets or summer vacations –  I always avoid the crowds and aim to beat the heat.

No lines. No traffic. No fake, overpriced food.

It also means dropping those hot semiconductor names and reaching for silver mining stocks…

July is by far the best month of the year for gold’s crazy cousin. And it’s not even close:

Unsurprisingly, silver futures gained roughly seven percent last week. They also eclipsed the previous month's high and printed their highest weekly close since January 2013 – a stellar way to start the month.

On the flip side, June takes the cake as Silver’s most challenging month of the year.

And what did Silver do last month?

It only fell by three percent, finding support at a critical shelf of former highs:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our July Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

The bull market is on, baby!

But if we expect it to continue, then we're going to need to see some rotation into some new sectors to bring fresh cash into the market and keep the wave going.

One sector that my Analysts feel has the potential to pick up the slack is Precious Metals. And the name that Steve Strazza and I discussed on today's Flow Show has the potential to ride the sector wave as well as play catch up to its big brother Gold.

Here's a chart of Wheaton Metals Corp $WPM:

I don't know if you heard, but Jeff Bezos is reportedly selling $5 Billion worth of $AMZN stock.

And I'm being told how bearish this is and why we need to sell all our Amazon stock as well.

"He knows something, which is why he's selling so much of his stock"

In my experience, this bad take is only because some people think $5 Billion is a lot of money.

And maybe it is to you.

But $5 Billion is almost zero when it comes to someone like Jeff Bezos.

Bear with me for a second, let me put y'all on game.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

With the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing at new all-time highs this week, the questions remain:

Is this sustainable?

Does the rally have legs?

Can this bull market continue?

Before I get to what I think is the most bullish thing that can possibly happen to this market, I have one sector I'd like to focus on quickly.

This is the S&P Industrials Index, which historically has the highest positive correlation with the S&P500 of all the S&P sectors.

Is this just a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend in a leadership group? Or is this a double top that's about to come tumbling down?

Stocks needed a correction.

And they got it.

Most stocks haven't made much progress since the middle of Q1. It's now July. They've been through a much needed digestion of prior gains.

Remember how epic that rally in Q4 was last year? And then it spilled over into January and early February this year.

But then came the correction.

A good look here is the Equally-weighted Nasdaq100 going out at new all-time highs on Friday, after 4 months of no progress:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Forget about the selloff in Bitcoin for a minute.

Coal stocks are ripping!

Perhaps they’re giving back some recent gains today, but most stocks are.

More importantly, Monday marked the largest one-day rate-of-change for our Coal Index since 2020…

If you’re wondering why we created an index of coal stocks, the answer is simple: The December 2020 delisting of the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF $KOL forced our hand.

They shut down the only coal ETF just as commodities began ripping (many toward new all-time highs). You can’t make this stuff up… 

One of our favorite names – Alpha Metallurgical Resources $AMR – has gained over 4,000% off the December 2020 lows. Unbelievable!

Almost four years later, the rally isn’t over for these names. 

Our coal index is on the verge of kicking off the next leg higher: