Tuesday night we held our December Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each
Though these contracts rarely find themselves on the front page, their upside resolutions provide an important commodity-trading roadmap heading into 2023.
Plus, their relative strength reveals insight into the underlying nature of the current market environment.
Check out commodity subgroup performances anchored from Sept. 26, when the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked:
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
Today officially marks the beginning of the Santa Claus Rally.
As we already discussed earlier this month, the SCR period runs during the final 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the following year.
So due to the holiday schedule, the 2022 SCR goes from today December 23rd through Wednesday January 4th.
The average performance during these 7 days is 1.33% and is positive 79.2% of the time. This is a big difference from all the other 7 day periods throughout the year, that only average 0.24% returns. They're also positive less than 60% of the time.
So we've found that there's real alpha during this period.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable. After intervening to keep its 10-year yield below 0.25%, it shifted the ceiling to 0.50%.
Naturally, the yen responded in earnest. It posted an explosive rally following the BoJ policy shift, gaining more than 500 pips against the dollar.
But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?
We've covered before how much I like buying stocks that are making new all-time highs. I like them, even more, when I can buy call options because premiums are low. And it's a cherry on top when the stock pays a meaty and steady dividend which lends price action support over the long run!
