Whoa baby. This might be a fun one. Or not. Either way, we'll likely find out pretty quickly.
Chinese stocks continue to offer up interesting opportunities. And today's trade is no exception. And to play it, we're going to do it in a fairly aggressive manner, but with a tight risk management stop.
As promised during yesterday's The FLOW show, I'm following up on a possible trade idea we discussed.
However, after Strazza and I put our heads together with the rest of the Analyst team this morning, we're going to attack an opportunity in Schlumberger $SLB from a different angle -- one that can be rewarding regardless of which direction the stock takes.
It’s easy to follow a trading plan when the price action is moving our way. We feel like geniuses.
Look at me! I’m so smart! The stock market is doing exactly what I planned for it to do! Let’s go car shopping!
But how do I feel if the price action goes the other way?
Assuming I’ve put a trading plan together that accounts for both the possibility of being right AND the possibility of being wrong, why should I feel any different when the price goes the wrong way?
What’s the point of putting together a detailed trading plan if I later exit the position following the first price move in the opposite direction I hoped for?
Today’s note has nothing to do with trading, and absolutely everything to do with trading.
Let me explain.
The solutions to trading problems aren’t always found when we’re trading. In fact, I would argue most of the time they aren’t. At least not for me.
Have you ever been in the shower, on a walk with your dog, or driving your car when suddenly you were struck with a fantastic idea or an important “to-do”? Not just about trading, but about anything?
Happens to me all the time.
Even worse, it seems that whenever I’m struck with a great idea or a prompt for an errand I need to do, they come in waves. The brainstorming just flows ideas out of my head in a torrent that makes it impossible for me to remember everything. And it always seems to happen when I have no ability to write it down.
So I just try to remember it all until later when I can either perform the task, send that email, write that blog post, make that trade, or adjust that strategy.
But this act of remembering prevents me from moving forward when all I’m trying to do is balance the spinning plates of thoughts running in my head.
Look, I don't know. I just follow Price. They are all just letters and numbers to me. If it trades, it's liquid, and there's a good technical setup -- that's all I need.
It just so happens that this particular company is engaged in creating Chinese internet content. Ok.
But man oh man do I like the potential reward-to-risk setup here so let's get straight to the point...
I tweeted that earlier today as I was feeling my position value decay away for no conceivable reason as the market was coasting sideways.
I felt helpless as my index options position was melting away, far beyond the level my theta risk suggested it would in a quiet market.
It turns out, the quiet market was precisely the reason.
It was a stark reminder to me: Long Vega also entails risks that I need to be aware of.
Most people, myself included, tend to worry about getting caught short volatility (short vega) in a market environment where volatility is rapidly rising. We’ve all heard the stories of traders holding naked short options that were overleveraged into a volatility spike. Those stories make the headlines. And rightfully so.
So it’s easy to forget that being long volatility can be just as painful when volatility is grinding lower as VIX certainly was today:
I got a lot of feedback on my last letter where I suggested active traders need to stop trading Covered Call spreads for tactical trades and instead do a simple Naked Puts trade.
Thank you to everyone who engaged.
Anyway, here’s one question [edited to the important parts] I got from a reader where I thought my answer might be instructive to more of you:
Hi Sean,
I read your information on naked puts. When I intend to buy a stock, I would like to sell a put. I just don't know how to go about it. I just don't know where the strike price would be. I understand that I would have to buy the stock at that price (whether it is better or worse than hoped).
If you could give me an example that would help.
Cheers!
This is a great question, but one without a clear-cut answer. Here was my response:
I'm about to show you what a healthy chart off the bear market lows looks like. One of the beautiful things about this chart is it's not heavily reliant on any one company.
This is a sector ETF for a corner of the stock market we believe should continue to do well for the foreseeable future. There will be winners and losers within the sector, and we don't know which ones will ultimately be the leaders, so why not just trade 'em all?
Additionally, trading the sector ETF significantly lessens any earnings-related or product announcement or FDA-approval-driven gap risk.
Maybe you have some long-term holdings showing significant gains that you don’t want to pay taxes on. But you want to squeeze some additional income out of these positions because either you’re greedy (fine) or you want to practice responsible risk management (a better reason).
That’s fine. Go ahead and continue selling covered calls from your yacht. You do you.
This post is aimed at the rest of you knuckleheads who seem to think entering covered call trades as tactical short-term plays is a productive use of your time and capital.
In a recent note, I shared performance stats for our All Star Options Paid-to-Play portfolio, and in the time since, I’ve fielded numerous emails/DMs that all ask basically the same question:
How did you earn money in such a challenging market environment and do so with far lower volatility than the indexes?
Rather than responding individually, I thought it would be better for everyone if I just shared my thoughts here. After all, we can all benefit from good ideas, yeah?
I’ll try not to get us lost in the weeds with the mundane tactical maneuvers employed each trading day. Instead, I’ll stick to the high-level concepts which guide my thinking.
With the NFL Playoffs getting underway this weekend (Go Bills!), it's time we put the offense on the field!
I was kicking around a bullish idea in a consumer staples name during our Analyst meeting today. The chart looks great. The setup is good. We can position for a nice potential reward versus the risk we'd incur to put the trade on. Everyone agreed that its probably a good trade.
But... is it aggressive enough?
Answer: No, it's not.
The thinking that emerged from our chat was that risk is back on in the stock market; therefore, we need to get into the most reasonably aggressive names we can. And one of the areas where risk is most definitely "on" is in the homebuilders sector.
If all we did was watch the evening news or listen to the inflation and interest rate scaremongers, we'd reasonably conclude that a long-term and painful bear market for real estate and housing in particular is a slam dunk. No contest.
If a severe real estate bear market was in the cards, would we be seeing homebuilders ripping of their recent lows the way we have over the past couple of months?
