The big question coming into this wasn’t whether or not we wanted to be sellers of stocks, but how low could stocks go? The point I tried to make was that they could go a lot lower than any of us think. I’ve been around too long and have seen too much to be surprised by anything anymore. So if the risk is skewed to the downside, in theory there is unlimited risk. Whether there is or there isn’t, is not the point. The fact alone that we’re even talking about it has been reason enough to not be long this market.
When looking below trying to figure out how low we can go, I can draw all sorts of Fibonacci retracement levels and horizontal lines of all colors, but the truth is that the market doesn’t care about JC’s lines. Forced selling sparked by margin calls and hedge funds blowing up causes prices to blow through any “levels” all the time. Remember, when we identify specific prices, they are just levels of interest, not necessarily support levels. We won’t know if they were actually support until well after the fact.
With that scary disclaimer in mind, I did my best to identify the most important levels of interest. This is where we want to be looking for turning points, breadth divergences and other bullish characteristics, although knowing full well that the market may not care. These levels are good areas to take tactical profits on shorts, or press shorts if we’re below key prices.
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