Good Buy or Goodbye?
As such, putting on a classic range expansion like a long straddle makes sense here. I don’t care which way we move (I’d prefer down, as I’d benefit from a volatility increase), I just need the move to be a big one. With volatility being reasonably low in $MSFT options, this affords me the ability to go a little further out in time, giving any breakout plenty of time to grow legs.
Here’s the Play:
I’m buying a $MSFT March 140 Straddle for approximately $18.25. This means I’ll be long equal amounts of both 140 calls and 140 puts in the March expiration series.
This position is ultimately looking for a big move below 122-ish or above 158-ish by March expiration. If $MSFT is stuck anywhere between these levels when March 1st comes around, I’ll close this spread and begrudgingly accept my loss. Theta becomes a major enemy in this position as we approach expiration later that month. I won’t be fighting it.
If or when the move happens, I’m not going to get cute. I’m going to get greedy. I’m going to let this position ride. Anything can happen, and my risk is defined. I’ll just trust my thesis and let time be my friend for as long as I can. Once I’m into the month of March, I’ll close the options on the losing side of the trade and then I’ll exit the winning side at the first break of nearby support/resistance.
For example, let’s say on March 1 $MSFT is trading below $115/share. In this case, my calls would be on the losing side and I’d close them down for whatever I can get (won’t be much). I’ll hold the long, winning puts and I’ll hold them for as long as I can until $MSFT bounces through any nearby upper resistance level. Let the market tell me when to get out. Make sense?
All Star Options subscribers can email me any questions here.
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