I love how people still think we’re in a 10-year bull market for stocks. This lack of understanding of basic reality is one of the many catalysts, I believe, that will take stocks much much higher.
The greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors it’s been in a decade long bull market.
The best part is that nothing could be further from the truth.
When we talk about “Stocks”, we have to recognize that “Stocks” are an asset class. It doesn’t just mean the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is a global stock market, and becoming more of one with every day that passes. Those of you who have been reading our work for years know how valuable that information has been to us for so long. Today is no different.
Look at Europe doing nothing for 2 decades and now starting a new bull market:
What 10-year old bull market are these people talking about? This is the broadest measure of European equities flat for 20 years!
London FTSE100 has also done nothing for 20 years. Taiwan is flat for 25 years. So is Thailand. Canada is just now breaking out after a flat 12 years. So is Australia. So is Hong Kong. Emerging Markets $EEM are down over 12 years. Japan, forget it! It’s no where near any former highs.
Meanwhile, here at home, the S&P500 has had 20% corrections 3 times over the past 10 years. The crazies will tell you that because one of those was down just 19% or something stupid like that, it doesn’t count. Lol I’m serious, they actually do that. And worse, people listen.
If they’re telling you that we’re in a 10-year bull market for stocks, they are lying to you, and I’m willing to bet that they’re doing so maliciously. They can’t possibly be that misguided.
Part of the push back I get is that we haven’t seen a “recession” in 10 years.
Think about this for a minute. You’re going to purposely not buy stocks because you’ve convinced yourself that the market cares about consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth? Do you even hear yourself?
You have to be so irresponsible and reckless to have the audacity to think that the market has any interest in your theories about economics.
The market doesn’t give a damn what a “recession” is or how you and your cronies have decided to define one. If you think the market should care, I think you need to check yourself into a psychiatric ward. I’m serious. Just stop it.
The economy and the stock market are not the same thing. Why on earth would you think it is?
Here are the top 10 stock markets in the world equally-weighted. Is this beast something you think you need to be shorting? I do not.
If we’re above those former highs in these charts, how can we not be buying stocks?
Remember, like anything else, this all depends on time horizon. If you’re very short-term and day trading or swing trading for a few days at a time, have a ball. Go long and short and play that game all you want. But from any kind of intermediate to longer-term perspective, I think the path of least resistance is very much up. Until we see data that suggests otherwise, we are going to stick with this theme. It’s working. It’s working really well, in fact.
What am I missing here?
What’s the argument to not be buying stocks?
I’m genuinely curious: What is the bear case?
Also see: Stocks Hit New All-time Highs, Again.