From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
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- The broad weakness from risk assets was reflected in our macro universe this week as 77% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.91%.
- The Volatility Index $VIX was the big winner, closing out the week with more than a 20% gain.
- Meanwhile, the worst performer of the week was Oil $CL, which fell by -8.94%.
- It was followed closely by another major procyclical commodity – Copper $HG, which dropped -5.80%.
- Russell 3000 $IWV and Emerging Local Bonds $ELD both posted bearish reversal weeks.
- Only about half of the assets on our macro list are in bullish momentum regimes.
- 57% of the assets on our macro list are within 5% of their 52-week highs.
- 40% of the assets on this list posted new 4-week lows, and 26% made fresh 13-week lows.
- Only 15% of the assets closed the week above last week’s high while 43% closed below last week’s lows.
- This week was a tough one for international equities as 76% of our list closed lower with a median return of -2.07%.
- The biggest winner of the week was the Philippines $EPHE which gained 4%.
- Peru $EPU was the biggest loser this week, dropping a hefty -9%.
- Only 40% of the assets on our macro list are within 5% of their 52-week highs (down from 56% last week).
- 55% of the assets on this list closed the week below their prior week low.
- Hong Kong $EWH, Greece $GREK and Russia $RSX all posted bearish reversals this week.
- Momentum remains constructive from a structural perspective, as 60% of the ETFs on our list are still in bullish regimes.
- 36% of the assets on this list posted a new 4-week low and about a quarter made fresh 13-week lows.
US Sector Universe:
- Our US sector universe was hit by the bears this week as 81% of our list closed lower with a median return of -1.77%.
- The biggest winner of the week was the Large-Cap Utilities $XLU which gained 1.82%.
- Small-Cap Energy $PSCE was again the biggest loser this week, dropping -9.94%.
- Many of the Large-Cap defensive sectors finished the week at all-time highs.
- Momentum remains positive from a structural perspective as 74% of the assets on our list are in bullish regimes.
- 32% of our list made new 4-week lows.
- Large-Cap Technology $XLK posted a bullish reversal.
- Mid-Cap Staples and Mid-Cap REITs both post bearish reversal weeks.
- Nearly half of our list closed lower than their lows from last week, undoing about two weeks of progress in many areas.
US Industry Universe:
- Our Industry universe also saw weakness as 91% of our list closed lower with a median return of -2.31%.
- The biggest winner of the week was Medical Devices $IHI (+1.99%) as Health Care remains a strong spot.
- Additionally, US Health Care Providers $IHF posted a bullish reversal week and also closed in the green.
- This week’s biggest laggard was Copper Miners $COPX, with a massive loss of -13.42%.
- The percentage of our list in bullish momentum regimes saw little change this week and is still at a reading of 61%.
- However, we did see a strong downtick in assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs, which now sits at just 28%.
- 61% of our list made new 4-week lows and 37% made new 13-week lows. Here’s a look:
As you can see, stocks have bounced higher following similar readings over the past year. Will this time be any different?
That’s it for this week’s highlights!
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