The First Five Days indicator for 2025 showed a positive return of 0.64%.
Here’s the table:
Here’s a bonus table highlighting all the positive years:
The Takeaway: Since 1950, this indicator has been positive 48 times. When it is positive, it has an average yearly gain of 15.6%, which is above the average yearly return of the S&P 500. Of the 48 years with a positive First Five Days, 83% have concluded the year on a positive note.
Not bad if you ask me.
But next on the list from Stock Trader's Almanac is the January Barometer (January Percentage Change), which is considered the most important of the January Trifecta (Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days & January Barometer) and I can confirm that if the January Barometer is positive, it returns on average a massive 18.1% yearly gain. Of those positive Januarys, 90% have finished the rest of the year positive.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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