After Tuesday’s 9-to-1 upside volume day, our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist is now five out of five.
Why It Matters: The conditions for a new bull market have been met. It’s hard to argue otherwise from a market perspective. Large-cap and mid-cap value indexes reached new all-time highs this week, and small-cap value is not too far behind. The trend for the market for the market is higher, even if not all the indexes (including the popular benchmarks) are trending higher. But when the trend is higher, leadership is evidence of opportunity.
Our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist has served its purpose well. But it is now time to put it aside and now turn our attention to questions of sustainability and leadership. These will be best answered by price and breadth trends and not one-off surges and thrusts. We will be aggregating some of the key indicators in this regard and introducing a new bull market sustainability checklist next week. Stay tuned.
To be clear, I don’t care what he said. Instead of hanging on the Fed Chair's words, I prefer to focus on the markets. I find it more enjoyable.
But, boy, did markets respond!
The most striking aspect of yesterday’s reaction was highlighted by the relative strength of growth stocks.
Check out the overlay chart of the US T-Bond ETF $TLT and the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK: These charts tend to move tick-for-tick, as long-duration assets benefit from the same market environment.
It doesn’t matter that one ETF holds the largest tech names across the market while the other a basket of long-term US Treasury bonds.
Whatever Powell said in addition to “disinflationary,” investors heard...
Excluding price action itself, relative strength has to be the most underappreciated indicator.
It's impossible to outperform if you own assets exhibiting relative weakness.
If a stock is underperforming, there's a reason why. It's not until months after the fact do investors discover the "fundamental" drivers anchoring that stock.
The same can be said for when a stock is outperforming.
Look at it like holding a beach ball underwater. You can feel the pressure on your arms, and when that pressure is released, the ball explodes into the air.
Think about the selling pressure in the market: When the selling pressure alleviates, the stocks showing relative strength tend to be the first ones that shoot higher.
These principles are universal across every market.