You guys know that I like to categorize certain things as being the "most important."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important index. The financial crisis highs are some of the most important levels in market history. 

And believe me when I say, semiconductors are the most important industry group in America right now, maybe even the world.

Why do I say this? Just look at the explosive growth. This is a group that just 5 years ago only had 3 companies worth more than $100 billion in market cap—Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and Taiwan Semiconductor. 

Today there are 13 semis over that threshold, including the grandaddy of them all, Nvidia. 

It has paid to pick our spots wisely in the commodities complex as it's been a very bifurcated asset class this cycle.

Live and Feeder Cattle are carving out distribution patterns.

Energy has been a rangebound mess.

Meanwhile, the relative strength has been in the soft commodities and precious metals.

Gold recently put the finishing touches on a multi-decade accumulation pattern.

Cocoa has resolved a 12-year base and rallied over 400% to new all-time highs.

Coffee is flirting with new multi-decade highs after completing a tactical reversal pattern.

And we're betting that Cotton will participate to the upside with the rest of the soft complex soon. The soft and fluffy commodity is on the verge of trapping the bears below a key level of polarity.

We want to continue leaning into the relative strength in soft commodities.

Back on a July 15th episode of The Flow Show, Strazza and I put on a trade in Viking Therapeutics $VKNG. You can get all the trade details here.

We still like the setup, but with September options, our original position is running out of time.

And recently, the Analysts published a report that makes me think I should roll my position further out in time:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XLB position to October.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The best short squeezes always start with a burst of momentum.

These moves are often sparked by a headline or news-related catalyst.

The price action in Peloton $PTON yesterday was an excellent example of this dynamic.

After reporting earnings Thursday, Peloton screamed higher and registered its best single-day performance in history.

While the report was nothing extra special, it was the first time the exercise bike maker beat on both the top and bottom line since May 2021.

When sentiment is this sour, sometimes "less bad" is all it takes.

PTON rallied 35% on the heels of the report, and with such a massive short interest, we think it's just getting started.

Here's the chart with the 1-day rate of change in the lower pane:

The Equally-weighted S&P500 is on pace to close the week at a new all-time high.

Based on the early trading in U.S. Markets, and the strength we're seeing in equities around the world, this looks like it's going to happen by the end of today.

Think about it like this: Mathematically it cannot be only 7 stocks going up if the Equally-weighted S&P500 is making new all-time highs.

It's just math.

And this really just speaks to the broadening participation across the market.

Just last month we saw the most amount of stocks hitting new 52-week highs that we've seen in years - on both the Nasdaq AND on the NYSE.

We also so the most amount of stocks on the NYSE that were above their 200 day moving average than at any point this entire bull market.

You cannot tell me that things are getting worse, if mathematically things just keep getting better.

And I preface with all this because when you zoom out, these mega-cap leaders are still drivers of this market.

They're just not the only ones.

But Nvidia is an absolute beast. This thing is now valued at $3 Trillion.

This is the perfect sort of market to look for relative strength.

When the tape is sideways and choppy, you want to see the first ones showing their heads above resistance levels and breaking higher. While it's not necessarily a great idea to buy those breakouts given their high likelihood to fail with everything else moving sideways, it is wise to simply note them down.

In the case of this week, MATIC stands out.

It climbed up two spots on our power rankings and the long-term setup is so well defined.

I think there's a good opportunity there.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

For the first time in my career, I'm buying bonds.

It has less to do with positioning defensively and more to do with making a call on lower interest rates.

But what it really comes down to, more than anything, is the chart pattern.

Bond funds are completing bearish-to-bullish reversals for the first time in years. 

This is the same exact pattern we've gone back to time and again this cycle... and every cycle, really.

Rounding bottoms are some of the most reliable patterns we have as technicians.

And we're seeing them across the board in bond funds right now.

Let's dive in and talk about some of them.

Here's the US Aggregate Bond ETF $AGG: 

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

I briefly walked through how I want to be patient trading names in the short-term while focusing on relative strength.

While today's name isn't currently actionable, it is just a stone's throw from being so. And, it's both a relative leader as well as having the tailwind of smart money in behind it.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XLK position.
3. Exited XME position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!