On Monday evening, my family ordered some takeout barbeque from the local joint here in town. Everything was delicious and I went to bed that night feeling just fine.
But I awoke around 1 a.m. to a twisting feeling in my stomach. Before long I was keeled over my bathroom toilet, puking my guts out. I wasn’t able to sleep at all, as I always felt I was moments away from hurling again.
The upchucking eventually subsided by sunrise, but I was left battling a ping-pong game of sweaty overheating and teeth-chattering cold shivers. All of this continued in between bouts of near-total unconsciousness as I could barely get myself out of bed for more than five or ten minutes at a time.
And when I was able to get on my feet, every muscle in my body ached and it took a herculean effort to put one foot in front of the other in a feeble attempt of movement that looked something like walking. It was as if I’d suddenly...
Despite another CPI report and the latest job numbers reflecting easing inflationary pressure, markets are a mess!
Indecision and uncertainty are running high. Investors simply aren't able to get a read on the economy and the Fed's next step.
I don’t blame them.
If you’re focusing on the Fed comments du jour or lagging economic data that will likely be revised in the future, confusion and pain are the higher probability outcomes.
That’s why we study price.
Let’s check in on the charts to clear things up…
Here’s the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate:
This chart shows the difference between the 10-year nominal bond yield and its corresponding TIPS Treasury yield, gauging inflation expectations (or the real return on a 10-year Treasury bond).
While the chart doesn’t reveal direct buying and selling pressure, both yields are based on the bond market. And, as is the case for global risk assets,...