These crazy Bitcoin "HODL'ers" and "Laser Eyes" people must be going nuts right now.
Apart from a few exceptions in shorter time frames, there's been a painful lack of real opportunities floating around in this space recently, both on the long and short sides.
Breakouts are failing, and breakdowns aren't doing much either.
Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones once said that "Markets only trend about 15% of the time, the rest of the time they move sideways."
As aggressive as trends can be in Crypto, we need to respect that markets simply need to repair their damages and reload for the next move.
In the context of Bitcoin's 200-day moving average, once price slips below it, it tends to stay below for some time - especially after prolonged periods of it remaining above.
The market has a mind of its own. Who would've thought that Reliance Industries would break out on a messy market day?
If you've been in the market a while, then you know that Reliance can single-handedly decide the direction of the market. Such is the power of this stock!
So what do we have here? Well, after a considerable bounce over the past month and a half, Reliance has managed to breach an area of resistance. And we're here to talk about the implications of that.
Key Takeaway: Index level highs lack support beneath the surface. Bonds rally in the wake of hot inflation data. Households own relatively few bonds, the Fed has never owned more Treasuries.
Health Care moved up three spots in this week’s relative strength rankings, but has yet to crack the leadership group. Industrials sector continues to slip in terms of relative strength.
Both our sector and industry group relative strength studies show Energy and Real Estate as areas of emerging leadership across the size spectrum.
With Consumer Staples and Utilities still near the bottom of the rankings, it’s hard to make the case for a decisive shift toward defensive leadership in the equity markets.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
The latest Young Aristocrats report is out and as always, there are some great opportunities setting up there. These are stocks with tremendous dividend growth consistency that are also setting up for bullish price action. How can investors not love these setups? Win from the price appreciation, and get paid while you wait in the form of dividends. Yes, please!
The opportunity that best caught my attention today is an all-time high breakout in a niche corner of the market.
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Outlook For Yields Turns Lower
Despite a historic CPI print, yields are unanimously pointing lower, including other vital metrics from different asset classes. Both the Copper/Gold and Regional Bank/REIT ratios have been pointing down for some time, and the all-important High Yield/Treasury Bond spread is shifting to a more bearish tilt for risk assets. It’s pretty clear right now that either the Bond market disagrees that long-term inflation is here to stick around or disagrees with the stock and commodity market on how it’ll affect.
This is where a lot of our mixed signals are coming from right now. Risk assets and commodities, particularly Crude Oil, are pointing to further upside for risk, while the Bond market is beginning to raise some alarm bells. And if we know anything about the Bond market, we consider it smart money. Watch this space...
If (and this is a big if) this is a tradable low for the Cryptocurrency space, this is a critical time and place for us to see new leadership emerge. So far, it's certainly not coming from down the cap scale.
This week we're looking for a long setup in the Pharmaceutical sector. Historical highs are being clocked on both index and stock levels, and one name pops right up.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. You can read more about the reasoning behind this post here.
We're just interested in aggregating all of the charts we put together throughout the week and organizing them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
One thing that stood out to me this week is the lack of deterioration underneath the surface.
Early in February, we had published a post discussing the Adani Group and its targets as well as risk management levels. We published a follow-up post with revised targets and risk management levels in April this year.
Well, it's that time again where we update the levels and see what's in store for this group.
Here's to more rotations and revolutions in this particular solar system. Off we go on our rocket ship to see what the charts have to say!
We created a Custom index of Equally weighted Adani Group stocks. As you can see, this particular line chart only requires an extension in the headspace area. Keeps moving higher and higher.
