From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
In last week’s Currency Report, we highlighted the NZD/USD cross as a means to express our bearish US dollar thesis.
The setup was too good to resist taking a swing at following the recently failed breakdown. And so far, we’ve been rewarded for it. That’s information.
But it’s not the only cross that continues to trend well against the US Dollar. We see it all over, and it’s only reinforcing our bearish thesis.
As such, we want to look for more opportunities to take advantage of this developing theme.
In this week’s post, we’re going to do just that.
Let’s drill into our forex universe now and identify some of our favorite risk/reward setups we want to bet on to capture profits from a weakening US dollar.
As the third quarter winds to a close, the bulls just took the lead for the first time since early in the 1st half.
Everything is clicking for them and they're in control of the game right now. While it's been a nice comeback, it's still just 52 to 48, so they have plenty of work to do.
I'm not talking about basketball. Not the Chicago bulls. I'm referring to stock market bulls and the current score on our risk checklist.
It's currently at its highest reading since we started publishing it back in June, so we'd be remiss not to write about it.
It's been a great roadmap for us in recent months so let's have a quick look at what it's saying now as well as some of the more recent developments that have taken place.
Key Takeaway: New highs lists expand as global markets show strength. Economic recovery falling short of expectations. Bond yields look ready to rise.
The Real Estate and Health Care sectors are relative strength leaders up and down capitalization levels. The Consumer Staples sector is a relative laggard across the cap scales.
Health Care strength can be seen on the industry group heat map with positive readings for the Pharma, Biotech & Life Sciences group. While the Consumer Staples sector is weak overall, the large & mid-cap Food & Staples Retailing groups are improving.
One of the first lessons you learn in technical analysis kindergarten is the principle of polarity.
That is, former support turns into resistance, and vice versa.
The thinking here is that when buyers absorb all the overhead supply looming at resistance, the market has nowhere to go but up. When the market breaks out and retests that former resistance, it turns into support on the way down.
This language of supply and demand is true everywhere, but particularly so in cryptocurrencies, where there are no earnings, dividends, and discounted cash flow models to dilute the necessity of price.
So, with this all said, is this a textbook example of polarity taking place in Bitcoin?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley
In last week’s Commodity Report we highlighted the Uranium ETF $URA and promised to dig up some trade ideas within this outperforming group of stocks.
While everyone was enjoying the Labor Day weekend, barbecuing, and watching football - we were pouring over our Uranium universe to uncover the best risk/reward opportunities in the strongest names.
But hey, this is what we love to do!
So let’s dive right in and see what we found.
First of all, why do we like Uranium so much right now?
Both the Uranium ETF and the underlying commodity are showing leadership and breaking out of 6-year bases. That's more than good enough for us.
In any given market there is never a time when all constituents move up together and vice versa. There is always an internal substitution at play. It is this game of musical chairs that helps us identify the sectors/sections that are exhibiting outperformance.
Once we are aware of the outperforming nature of certain ticker symbols, it becomes easier to select our avenues of investment.
Keeping that in mind, we are here to discuss two representatives from the commodity universe that are displaying strength.
This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Energy sector. It's a big name and there has been a breakout in the making for quite some time now. You've probably guessed it by now.
Let's take a look at the trade idea this time around.
Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 3, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our "Minor Leaguers" column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
It’s Bear Hunting Season
In our monthly candlestick review, the primary theme was the long list of all-time highs. That’s never bearish. But when we looked toward the weaker areas, despite lagging behind, they’re all holding critical levels of support. When the bears can’t drag down even the worst areas, that’s information. Precious metals, energy, or in this case, airlines whipsawed below support, only for bulls to come out and reclaim control.
As illustrated here, we got about as strong of follow-through as the bulls could have wished for. Again, the fact that so many of the weakest areas just won’t break down is incredibly constructive. If bears can’t even take out airline stocks, how can they ever grab a hold of the broader market? You have to start somewhere, and right now they’re moving backward.
