In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Intermarket Confirmation For Interest Rates
In recent weeks we have witnessed rates break above 1.40% and crude oil achieve its highest level since 2014. One of many missing pieces for the intermarket puzzle is the Copper/Gold ratio, which has been chopping sideways since risk assets peaked back in May. This week, we got an upward resolution, which suggests that base metals will continue to outperform precious metals. But it also suggests we’re entering an environment conducive to higher rates and higher prices for commodities, in general. This is a constructive pattern breakout that supports the global growth and reflation narratives.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
These are the registration details for our live conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday October 19th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
There is more money being allocated to risk assets than there are risk assets to feed that demand.
It's not about the Fed, or the Trump or the COVID.
Prices go up when there's more demand than supply for assets. And that's what we see.
Here's exhibit A. Crude Oil is making new 7-year highs.
And why do you think that is happening? Is it because there's more supply of oil than there is demand for it? Or is it because there is more demand than supply?
You can complain about higher oil prices, or you can celebrate. You get a choice in this country.
Which one will you be?
I'd rather be celebrating with friends and family that we're all paying twice or even 3 times the price at the pump!
You can always check out the list of my favorite trade ideas here.
(While on vacation until Oct 26th, I’m going to be sharing some anecdotes on my favorite trading strategies: why I use them, when, and how I manage them once they are on.)
The majority of trades we do here with All Star Options tend to be directional in nature. And why not? We're leveraging best-in-class technical analysis to give us an uncommon edge to participate in emerging and/or continuing trends. And if we know anything as Traders, we know that if we have an edge, we should attempt to execute against that edge as often as possible.
Meanwhile, I recognize there is an entire cottage industry around "selling options premium" and for good reason -- it works! That doesn't mean it always works nor does it mean it's easy. I just don't like to make it my only thing.
That said, one of my favorite strategies is to sell premium via Short Strangles.
This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Financial and Metal sector. We're seeing new all-time highs in financial & metal sector indices and thought of taking a look at a stock that's ripe for a bullish move.
I agreed to give a presentation Saturday morning about Crypto Currencies.
But if you've seen me walk through my charts in the past, you know I have a hard time sticking to one asset class.
If we're talking about stocks, how can we do that without talking about the bond market?
If we're talking about Commodities, how can we have a serious conversation without including interest rates?
And if we're talking about Crypto Currencies, how can we not include the bank stocks with Crypto exposure, who are benefiting from both rising crypto prices AND rising interest rates?
Well, that's what happened Saturday morning.
A conversation that was supposed to be about Crypto, turns into an all out blitz of rising asset prices due to an asset shortage that we're seeing worldwide.
The reason risk assets are going up in price has nothing to do with the economy, or the federal reserve or who the president is....
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the big US names on our original Hall Of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive in and take a look at what some of the largest stocks around the world are doing.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Copper was a critical piece missing from the intermarket puzzle heading into the fourth quarter.
Just last week, copper was testing year-to-date lows and looking vulnerable for a downside break. Meanwhile, energy futures and interest rates were rising, and cyclical and value stocks were getting back in gear.
The mixed signals were impossible to ignore. It’s not likely that the recent breakouts in crude oil and the US 10-year yield would hold in an environment where copper is breaking down.
Dr. Copper is a great leading economic indicator and critical to the global growth narrative. Let’s see what it’s saying.
Here are two ways we were looking at the copper chart:
