Key Takeaway: Index strength fueled by new found momentum. New highs lists are expanding, but not very rapidly. Persistent inflation, sputtering growth are a headache for the Fed.
Consumer Discretionary has been the top-performing large-cap sector on a short-term basis and was one of only two large-cap sectors to make new highs last week (Information Technology was the other). The sector’s relative strength at the large-cap level is not echoed among mid and small-caps, but it is still fairly broad-based (it’s equal-weight ranking matches its cap-weight ranking).
Energy and Financials have lagged on a short-term basis, but remain at the top of our relative strength rankings across size levels.
The ASC team put out their latest International Hall of Famers list late last week. Here's what you need to know about these stocks: These are the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs, which the team has applied technical filters to in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
And one that caught my interest just recently got its last quarterly earnings reveal out of the way and it is now trading above the level where we want to take action.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Stocks Still Flirting With Former Highs
Large-caps continue to be leaders as the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 made decisive upside resolutions this past week. Mid-caps aren’t far behind with the S&P 400 pressing back above its year-to-date highs. However, small-caps are still trading in a range and have yet to make new highs. The bet we’re making is that all of these eventually resolve in the same direction. With mid and large-caps leading the way and holding firm above their breakout levels, we think it’s only a matter of time until small-caps follow.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
The market is still constructively absorbing overhead supply, which hasn't been surprising to see take place.
Periods of consolidation like this allow sentiment and positioning to cool down while the market prepares for its next leg higher. If Bitcoin is above 59,000, we're making the bet that the shakeout is in the process of completing, and prices will eventually move back to their former all-time highs above 65,000.
But as we'll walk through in today's note, we're waiting for prices to ultimately reclaim 65,000 before we hold much conviction on further upside.
This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Infrastructure sector. The market has been quite selective over the past two weeks but we saw strength come through in pockets. Here is one such example.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
If you say 20% price appreciation it's probably because you watch too much basic cable.
Are a majority of stocks going higher or are a majority of stocks going lower?
That's how we determine bull and bear markets.
And by the way, individual stocks do NOT have bull and bear markets. The concept of a bull or bear market is a broad market description, not reserved for individual stocks.
If anyone ever tells you that an arbitrary 10% move is a "correction" and 20% is a bull/bear market, then you know they can't be trusted. It's that simple. Move on.
So if you're interested in the way markets actually work, as of earlier this month, when breadth improved, we proclaimed that the bull market was finally back, after the last one came to an end in February.
These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday November 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Procyclical commodities have attracted all the attention this year as inflation and rising rates have driven prices considerably higher.
But, as we pointed out last week, many of these contracts -- Brent crude, natural gas, copper -- are running into areas of overhead supply or are already in the process of correcting.
With that as our backdrop, let’s switch gears and focus on an area of the commodity space we haven’t talked about in months.
That’s right... precious metals!
While we’re seeing many leading commodities pause at logical levels of resistance, gold and silver have finally stopped going down and are rebounding off support. Despite trending lower since last summer, they're still holding above the lower bounds of their trading ranges. We think this basket of shiny rocks is ripe for review.
Let’s take a look around the precious metals complex and see what’s new.
