From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Benchmark yields have moved in a vertical line higher since the beginning of March. This isn't just the case in the US; we're seeing similar action all across the globe.
But as rates rally higher and higher, more and more classic intermarket relationships are failing to confirm the move.
Yes, commodities and commodity-related stocks remain resilient, and bonds are an absolute dumpster fire.
Most other assets we would expect to do well in a rising rate environment simply aren’t. This is especially true for the banks!
Meanwhile, those groups that we'd expect to underperform in this kind of environment, such as utilities and other defensive stocks, are actually outperforming.
All of this speaks to risk-aversion, not risk-seeking behavior.
I got a message last night that Ned Davis is retiring from the eponymous firm he launched more than four decades ago. Turns out, he’s not quite retiring – but he is stepping back. Either way, it’s a good time to reflect on his impact on the industry.
His data-driven, evidence-based approach to the market can seem obvious to those of us who are following the trail he blazed. But it would have been less obvious at a time when data access and computing power were more limited than they are now. It was revolutionary then, and is the gold-standard today.
More than ever, the industry is filled with those who want to tell stories about what should happen without making space for feedback about whether that is happening. Many want to sit still and find ways to have their priors confirmed, rather than having a disciplined and objective approach toward weighing the evidence. Being data-driven is more than just doing a little math and including a decimal place. Knowing what you want the answer to be before you even ask the question is not evidence-based, it’s narrative-driven.
As sophisticated as public markets can be, they often have little quirks.
Everyone's heard about the McRib indicator: The S&P 500 has a higher daily return when the McRib is available at McDonald's than when it's not available.
Or how about the magazine covers? That's another classic anecdotal indicator.
Another one is the conference dip.
It's said that when all the traders are out at conferences, the market dips.
The annual CMT Association Symposium was notorious for this. Later on, we saw this during the big SALT conference in Vegas.
The old thought was that if all the big players are at a conference, who's left to buy?
It's funny because now we're seeing the dips during crypto conferences.
The talk of the town in the world of crypto is the recent Bitcoin conference taking place in Miami.
For this week's trade, we're selling an $XLI May 97/105 Strangle for approximately $2.85 net credit. This means we're naked short both the 97 puts and the 105 calls.
Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here:
The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.
Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
Key Takeaway: The rally off of the mid-March stock market lows has equity investors feeling better. Without upside follow through (in terms of price and/or risk appetite), moods could quickly sour. So far, evidence of follow through has been lacking. Taking a longer-term perspective, the pessimism that was seen earlier this year seems more consistent with frustration that the stocks one owns aren’t going up rather than a deep-seated desire to reduce exposure and avoid equities altogether. Equity funds continue to see inflows, stocks are expensive relative to earnings and household exposure to equities has remained at historically high levels. Without these conditions unwinding, short-term mood swings may be even more sensitive to price changes than they normally are.
Demystifying the world of cryptocurrencies can be a taunting task.
Even before you dive into the emerging world of defi, web 3.0, and NFTs, what seems like the relatively simple Bitcoin network has a hidden underworld of complexity and nuance.
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be bought without the necessity of a financial intermediary, like an exchange or crypto broker.
Instead, you can complete transactions on-chain, transferring capital and funds to individuals across the world utilizing the computing power of a peer-to-peer network.
These transactions, in turn, are validated and secured by miners, who dedicate computing power via solving complicated mathematical problems. Once solved, a hash is created.
The hash rate, in formal terms, is the number of hash operations done in a given period of time.
Less formally, the hash rate essentially measures the security and health of any proof-of-work cryptocurrency.
Volatility is not done with us yet. It ain't going down without a fight! At the time I'm writing this, $VIX is +15% on the day and +31% since Monday's close.
This has me back on the hunt for some premium selling opportunities.
And an ETF on our radar that checks the boxes of elevated premium, potential rangebound trading action, and a good fade opportunity is the $XLI Industrials ETF.
