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September Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

September 9, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our September Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can click here to watch the recording and review the chartbook.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

Five CEOs Report Inside Buys

September 9, 2022

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Loews Corp.

The New York City-based investment conglomerate reported a purchase of roughly $5.7 million in CNA Financial Corp $CNA.

Worry about yourself

September 8, 2022

You notice how folks these days are all up in other people's business?

What do the decisions other people make with their money have to do with you? or me?

I don't care if someone I don't know makes an irresponsible trade and blows up their account.

Why is that my problem?

Let them blow up.

It's probably for the best anyway. You gotta learn somehow.

But that's not of my concern.

You want to put all your life savings into NFTs? Go for it. I don't care.

You want to sit in cash during a bull market watching everyone make money but you? Sure. Knock yourself out.

All Star Charts Premium

A Clue From the Two

September 8, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this morning, the market is pricing in an 86% chance of a 75-basis-point hike later this month. 

Meanwhile, rates continue to accelerate at the short end of the curve. That’s been the story for months now. 

But will the middle and long end of the curve head higher as well?

According to the two-year US Treasury yield, the answer is a resounding "yes!"

Short-duration rates offer plenty of valuable, leading information regarding US Treasury yields.

We’ve leaned on the five-year yield throughout the current cycle as an early indication of the direction of the 10- and 30-year. It’s proved a beneficial practice.

Today, we’re going to drop it down a notch, extending the same logic to the two-year yield.

Here’s a quad-pane chart of the two-, five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury yields:

All Star Charts Crypto

The One Crypto That's Breaking Out

September 8, 2022

It's been a pretty lousy market out there...

There's been so little to discuss in the way of data points that'd pull us from the doldrums.

Strazza sent a brief note in our Slack chat to ask how many cryptos were below their June-July lows. This is when things were at their worst -- 3AC just got margin-called, and there were mass liquidations.

Upon quantifying this, only 4% of our universe of 316 coins are below their closing June-July lows.

That's 13 coins, not a whole lot.