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Relative Strength in Growth Stocks

November 18, 2022

Note: Our Live Mid-month Conference call is this coming Monday Nov 21st @ 6PM ET. Premium Members can register here.

For quite some time we've treated Bitcoin and many Altcoins as just more stocks to choose from.

More specifically, we can argue they might be software stocks, or Tech stock of some kind.

At the very least, we've agreed that they're in the growth category and part of that long-duration trade.

And the correlations have been there to justify it.

So the divergence we've seen lately really stands out.

Regardless of market capitalization, you can see the growth stocks holding on to their June lows, but Bitcoin and many Altcoins have not.

They've gone on to make lower lows:

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Will Rates Track the Dollar?

November 17, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t take your eyes off the US dollar and interest rates!

I know it’s been a long year, but we’re finally witnessing early signs of potential trend reversals. The breakdown in the dollar last week confirmed the mounting evidence suggesting the USD has reached its peak.

Now, will interest rates follow?

Check out the dual pane chart of the US dollar index $DXY and the 30-year yield $TYX:

They look almost identical. The recent breakdown in the dollar marks the lone flaw between the two, raising the question…

Will the strong relationship between rates and the dollar hold?

Swing Trader Pro: Afternoon Briefing (11-17-2022)

November 17, 2022

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Today was like a strange pendulum -- back and forth and up and down and all around.

The $SPY tried hard all morning to hold on to the eight-day moving average at 391.40.

Once $AAPL started to move higher, so did the indices -- SPY ran up to 394-plus.

Sentiment as a Money Management Tool

November 17, 2022

This week we came right out of the gates with the Chart of the Decade.

The catalyst for stocks to have a sustained rally is a weaker US Dollar.

The market keeps proving that to be right.

And yes, I am aware that in the 1990s, a weaker Dollar was not the bullish catalyst for stocks.

But are you aware that this is not the 1990s?

It's 2022 and the correlation has been consistently negative between stocks and Dollars.

Until that changes, we're not going to fight it.

And while this week's chart was comparing the US Dollar to Emerging Market Currencies, in this post I want to focus on the more developed countries.

The Euro, British Pound and Yen represent 83% of the entire US Dollar Index.

The Euro and British Pounds both bottomed in late September, while the Yen put in its low last month.

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Three Breadth Charts To Explain Crypto Markets

November 17, 2022

Market breadth has to be the handiest tool in our technical analysis kit.

Sure, we love ripping through thousands of charts to gauge broad market trends. But breadth indicators are a cheat code. Putting in the work, we can easily quantify and, more importantly, visualize how well a market is being supported by its constituents.

Because remember, it will always be a market of stocks, not a stock market. Or, in this case, a market of cryptocurrencies.

There are numerous ways to optimize this data output; we can use this breadth data as the basis of a systematic approach.

Your trading system is only as good as your understanding of how well your system operates in different market environments.

If you understand that particular systems and strategies work better in trending environments but are terrible in rangebound markets, you can optimize your trading performance by leaning on different approaches depending on the market environment.