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The Strazza Letter

Top Down Trade of the Week (7/12/2025)

July 12, 2025

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week

This is a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week’s standout is Materials, holding steady at the number four spot in our sector rankings.

 

It’s not the first time we’ve highlighted Materials since we began publishing this scan. Strength has been quietly building under the surface for a while now.

Just last week, $XLB posted its best relative performance versus the broader market in over five years.

I'm open to the idea of a big rotation into cyclicals in the back half of this year.

Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows...

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(Commodities Weekly) We Nailed Copper. Here’s What’s Next 📊

July 11, 2025

For months now, we’ve been pounding the table on Copper. 

Now, the trade is on fire. Copper futures had their best day ever on Tuesday after news of new tariffs from the Trump campaign.

This move also resulted in the first overbought reading on the 14-day RSI since March, marking the beginning of a new bullish momentum regime.

We've also been betting on the miners playing catch-up, and sure enough, that's working, too.

But as strong as that move was, Copper isn’t alone. 

Gold rang the dinner bell over a year ago with new all-time highs in March 2024. 

Since then, we've watched precious metals like Silver,...

Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Metals in Motion

July 11, 2025

Metals are on the move this week — and in a big way.

Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum… All printing fresh breakouts at the same time.

Gold kicked things off last year. It’s been stair-stepping higher for months, leading the charge. But recently, it’s cooled off — and now the rest of the complex is following suit.

Silver’s breaking out from a massive base and pushing into territory we haven’t seen in over 13 years.

 

We think 50 is on the table — and it could get there fast.

Copper’s part of this conversation too. Always has been.

We don’t call it Dr. Copper for nothing — it’s a key read on growth and the global economy.

And this week? It just logged its best single-day gain in history.

 

Big moves like this usually mean one of two things:

A blow-off...

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Hooray for Bitcoin!

July 11, 2025

After several false starts, the world’s largest cryptocurrency finally got it done. 

With some solid momentum right out the gate, my only question is… 

How far will it run?

And I think it’s bigger than BTC this time around. I’m looking for the altcoins to finally buy in and kick off a broad crypto bull market. 

If you look beyond the blue-chip alts, most of these tokens have been going through accumulation for years— carving out massive rounding bottoms.

I’m looking for these patterns to morph into fresh uptrends… one after the next. And soon.

What I’m really saying is get ready for an altcoin summer.

And here’s the main reason why. 

 

The squeeze indicator in the lower pane shows that volatility is absolutely depressed in BTC, and has been for a while. 

...
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Booked It: Robinhood $HOOD Bull Call Spread

July 11, 2025

I took profits today in a Bull Call Spread on Robinhood ($HOOD). The trade was working, the options didn’t expire until January, and price action was moving in my favor… so why close it now?

Let me walk you through it.

I put the trade on June 2nd: a January 70/100 call spread, paying $6.25 for the setup. Today, just 29 days later, I closed it for $17.05:

 

Now, the most this spread could be worth at expiration is $30. So technically, I left some money on the table. If I held all the way through to January, I mighthave doubled my profits from here.

But that would mean tying up my capital for another 170+ days.

Instead, I walked away with a 172% gain in less than a month. Not bad, right?

Here’s the thing with Bull Call Spreads: once both strikes are in the money early, and the trade has made a big move in your favor, you’re in a situation where the upside is capped and the risk of giving it all back starts creeping in.

That’s not a combo I love sitting in for long.

If this had been a long call with unlimited upside? Maybe I’d let it ride. But with capped profit potential and the bulk of...

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The Market Speaks—The Fed Follows

July 11, 2025

Everyone keeps assuming the Fed is done. That rates peaked in 2023. That the next move is down. That the cycle has run its course and we’re heading back to easy money.

But here’s the thing: the market says otherwise.

The 30-year yield has been grinding higher for most of 2025—not violently, not emotionally, just relentlessly

Quiet pressure. And when you see that kind of persistent strength at the long end, while the Fed Funds rate sits frozen? That’s not noise. That’s not a shrug. That’s a message.

And this pattern? We’ve seen it before. 

 

In 2018, the Fed hiked into weakness. The 30-year had already peaked, already started to roll over. The bond market was waving red flags. Powell didn’t listen. They pushed one step too far, broke the system, and were forced to reverse course.

The market knew first. The Fed caught up too late.

Then in 2024, it happened again—only flipped.

The Fed started cutting. But the 30-year? It didn’t follow. It rose. Why? Because that cut wasn’t about collapsing demand. It was...

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International Hall of Famers (07-11-2025)

July 11, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

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[Options Premium] Beyond the Moon

July 11, 2025

 

Shooting for the moon is cool. You know what's cooler? Shooting for the Galaxy!

With Bitcoin printing a $118k handle, the crypto space is reawakening. This has me on the hunt for opportunities in stocks that will likely ride this coming wave. 

Yes, bitcoin miners are an obvious choice, but they've always disappointed me. I need something better, and I think I found it.

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/11/25

July 11, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling XME to September options.
  3. Closed GDXJ at profit target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Crypto’s Next Leg

July 10, 2025

Bitcoin is breaking out to new all-time highs, and the broader crypto complex looks ready to follow.

I’m focused on the most important charts and levels.

BTC has been gearing up for a move all year long. Consolidating. Coiling. Digesting gains. Building up energy for the next leg higher.

Sentiment is nowhere near what we’ve seen in past cycles. And that’s a good thing.

For us, it all starts with one level: Bitcoin above 110K. That’s the line in the sand. That’s where we get aggressive.

Currently, BTC is resolving higher from a textbook bull flag at its old highs.

 

The breakout is on— I think we’re heading toward 150K.

Ethereum’s telling a similar story. It’s been coiling just like Bitcoin, and appears to be resolving higher now.

 

ETH is reclaiming the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs, which...