Before we start again with Season 2 of the Allstarcharts Interviews, I wanted to introduce you to our new Chief Options Strategist at Allstarcharts.com - options wizard Sean McLaughlin! Many of you already know him as @chicagosean. When it comes to the Greeks, this is the guy you want on your side, so we're lucky to have him. In this podcast episode, Sean and I talk about Trading, Social Media, Taking Vacations, Books to Read and of course, Options! This was a fun conversation to have and I think there are a lot of pieces of value to take away from this one.
You have two options as an investor: you could listen to the media or you could listen to the market. They've been pushing the notion lately that only a handful of Tech stocks are leading the way for the market, suggesting a weakening breadth environment. In the real world, however, we are participating in a united rally among Tech stocks as a group.
In fact, the Equally-Weighted Technology Index went out just 0.4% away from another all-time weekly closing high, just shy of it's record high set last month. This is the Equally-Weighted Index, not the Cap-weighted index that the bears are suggesting is pointing to weakening breadth because the big names are such a large portion. If it was true that only a handful of names are going up and market breadth is deteriorating, the Equally-weighted index, which takes the extra-large market capitalization stocks completely out of the equation, would not be behaving this way.
I love getting questions from our subscribers to All Star Options. It shows they are engaged and eager to learn or to get clarification as they learn our processes. We get questions every day. Here's one I received recently that I thought held a lesson we could all benefit from:
We are in the tricky part of the quarterly cycle where upcoming earnings warrant caution on options trades in individual names. Premiums get elevated ahead of the uncertainty heading into each earnings event, so that makes being long premium an undesirable idea. Meanwhile, it makes me uncomfortable getting short elevated premiums into these events because of the risk of an outsized move blowing through any short strikes I may have on.
And of course and ironically, with summer in full swing, broader indexes are seeing declining volatilities which makes it tougher to put on good credit spreads.
But your boy hasn't given up looking for opportunities, and I see a good one shaping up in the Utilities space.
The Nasdaq 100 just hit another all-time high, as did the amount of people quoting the percentage of the index's gains that are from its top five components. While that makes for a good headline and soundbite, it's not really all that actionable. What is actionable is the chart below, which we spoke about in early June.
There are 51 stocks down since the Nasdaq 100's initial peak on January 26th, meaning there is opportunity on both sides of the tape if you're so inclined. What it also tells us is that it doesn't pay to get ideological about how large components like Apple, Amazon, and Google have become. It's a cap-weighted index, which means that as long as the leaders keep leading the index is going to move higher. When their performance deteriorates, as will the index's; it works on the way up, and the way down. It's just math.
It's been quite a few years since I did these youtube videos, but with the help of technology and a solid team, this is something we can start doing again on a regular basis.
Here is the first video with a throwback to the old days and then we get into Consumer Discretionary stocks and why I think they will continue to be a leading indicator for the overall market.
Large-caps in India have been on a tear relative to their small and mid-cap counterparts, which we've spoken about at length over the last few months. With that said, it's no surprise to see that the Nifty 50 is leading to the upside once again by clearing its recent range on an absolute basis and making new 5-month closing highs.
Perhaps it's the overwhelming number of afflicted Bears coming in to emergency rooms, pharmacies (for pain meds), and therapists couches across America that is fueling the continued bull market in healthcare stocks? Interesting thought.
But we're not fundamentalists here, we just follow price action, volume, and with our options trades -- volatility. And those three things are pointing to a great opportunity for profits in the $XLV Healthcare ETF.
Some people look at Utility stocks doing well as something negative. I never understood that. They suggest that an uptrend in a sector that is looked upon as "defensive" is not something characteristic of a stock market that is going up. But, in fact, it is. With Utilities pressing against all-time highs again, now is as good of a time as any to remind ourselves that they indeed move with the overall stock market over time.
In 2018 the trend of small-cap Healthcare out-performance over its large-cap counterparts accelerated aggressively, with the small-cap ETF $PSCH returning 30.50% YTD and the large-cap ETF $XLV up a meager 1.70%.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
Despite XLV's under-performance relative to small-caps and the broader market, some signs of improvement have been developing over the last few weeks. As we can see in the ratio of $XLV / $SPY below, prices retested their 2017 lows as momentum diverged positively. This suggests at the very least we don't want to be short on a relative basis.
On an absolute basis $XLV made nearly 4-month highs last week and is attempting a breakout after 6 months of consolidation. A close above 86.60 would suggest prices are heading to our next upside price target of 101.30. We also want to see momentum get back into overbought...
Jack Dorsey, CEO of both Square $SQ and a little-known company named Twitter $TWTR, is having a pretty good year. How good? Well, in the last 365 days, $SQ is up 177% and Twitter is up a more modest 158%. Boy, the sentiment in these two names sure has changed. It seemed like just yesterday Jack Dorsey was America's most hated CEO. "Pick one!" the masses screamed. Everyone thought he had taken on too big of a workload as the stocks of both companies languished in prolonged downtrends. Amazing what twin upward trending stock prices can do for Public Relations.
While both stocks look compelling here, we're going to take advantage of some attractive volatility being priced into $SQ options and an earnings event to play both sides against.