Interest rates are on the move, with the Ten-Year Treasury Yield breaking 3% once again after working off its failed breakout attempt from May. One relationship that's highly correlated with the Ten-Year Yield is Regional Banks vs REITS. We've written about this relationship in 2016 and 2017, but it's at an important inflection point so today's chart is going to revisit it.
This conversation with Mark Dow kicks off Season 2 of the All Star Charts Interviews sponsored by Investor's Business Daily. Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s and later was a sovereign analyst at a Mutual Fund before ultimately running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. Today, Mark runs a Family Office from southern California and recently launched a Private Twitter Account that you can subscribe to called Behavioral Macro. In this Episode, we talk about the benefits of Technical Analysis throughout both process and execution, where we are in the...
I'm really excited to share with you guys that I will be coming to Texas in early September for a series of events put on by the CMT Association. I will be speaking at the Dallas Chapter on September 4th, Austin September 5th and Houston on September 6th.
Each of these events will be free to both Members and Non-members of the CMT Association, so everyone is welcome. Here are the dates and details:
It's the end of the month, which means we've got new monthly charts. Last month we discussed the strength in large-cap Financial Services, Consumer Goods, IT, and in certain areas of Pharma, while the weakest areas were mid and small-cap Infrastructure, Metals, Commodities, Realty, Media, and Autos. This post is going to discuss any significant changes from last month, but members can find the rest of the updated charts in the Chartbook.
The strength in large-caps continues, as shown by the Nifty 50 making a new all-time closing high. This month's candle opened at the lows and closed at the highs, signaling a continuation of its uptrend after 6 months of consolidation. If prices are above 11,165 we want to be long as our next price objective us up near 15,260.
The Nifty 100 closed at new all-time highs, opening at the lows and closing at its highs. If prices are above 11,200, our price objective remains 12,640.
I could not be more thrilled that it's the end of the month for one reason alone: Monthly Candlestick Charts. They get me every time! It's easy to get lost in the every day noise surrounding the market. The chart review I do heading into the first of every month is one of the most important parts of my process. It brings me home. There's no better way I know to maintain composure and recognize trends than this monthly music and chart session!
Since June of 2017 when the S&P500 broke out above 2400, we've had a target of 3000. After close to a 4% rally in the S&P500 Index this month, we went out just 6 points from a new all-time high monthly close. This is not any evidence we think suggests anything has changed. To the contrary, higher prices are things we expect to see in an uptrend:
What is really interesting is what is currently happening with the Dow Jones Averages, both the Industrial & Transportation Indexes. First, let's start with the Transports because they just went out at a new all-time monthly closing high. Our target near...
51 days until expiration is the sweet spot for putting on delta neutral income trades. "Income Trades" are best established in underlyings experiencing elevated levels of volatility (resulting in higher options prices), but that are stuck within a price range. The thinking here is that volatility is likely to revert back to the mean and the underlying is likely to stay within it's current range. Inertia, ya dig?
In coming weeks, All Star Options will be unveiling an Income Trades Heat Map which will help direct you towards the best ETF candidates for putting on these trades whenever you're interested.
In the meantime, we've got a trade from the top of this list ready to go.
Based on the great feedback we receive every day, we know a lot of Allstarcharts India readers have an interest in the mid-cap and small-cap segments of the market. Typically we cover those areas in the Monthly Conference Call, followed by a deep dive (or two) on anything that we didn't have time to discuss. Additionally, we publish shorter posts throughout the month highlighting opportunities as they emerge.
While a good start, we wanted to create something to provide more regular coverage of the space, so we've added nearly 100 mid and small-cap stocks to the Chartbook feature of our site. To narrow this universe down to a manageable size, these lists include those stocks that are available to short via futures and/or options, so that we can provide consistent analysis on both sides of the trade as we do in the other Chartbooks.
The original inspiration for the monthly conference calls for members of All Star Charts came from the benefits of the Question & Answer sessions. We have really smart and experienced members and I think everyone can get value from this process, myself included.
Over the years, our conference calls have gotten much more in depth and to keep the videos under an hour, we simply have not had as much time for Q&A as was originally intended. Therefore, starting this month I will be hosting a video Q&A which will be archived for everyone to watch.
If you have any questions, you can fill out this form and I will be answering them in a video on the evening of August 1, 2018.
Please note that this form is not a pop-out window or link, just enter your name and question directly below in the spaces provided.
When I thought of the title for this post I was hoping to make a Nascar analogy, but quickly realized I don't know anything about Nascar or racing. With that aside, what's clear from our recent blog posts is that we remain bullish on US Equities but open-minded to the new data we're getting each day. As I was going through my sector chartbook this weekend I identified a few momentum divergences that have emerged, as well as some bullish data points that potentially offset them, so this post will quickly go through my findings and key takeaways.
This weekend all of the Chartbooks on the site were updated, so this is a quick post to highlight some of the significant developments since they were last updated.
The last two trading days (Thursday-Friday July 26-27) have been somewhat challenging for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But there was some relative strength in the financials, in particular, American Express $AXP which last week printed a new all-time high.
This isn't entirely surprising to us as we've been watching the financials absorb cash flows as one of the next to step up in the ongoing sector rotations that continue to lead this bull market higher. And we've got a plan to capitalize.