One thing we want to watch out for is this recent relative strength in Consumer Staples. I don't think it's necessarily time to sound the alarm just yet, but continued relative strength out of this group is not consistent with higher stock prices.
Now, a couple of weeks doesn't make a trend. But it is curious to see this one not confirming the new lows that the rest of them are putting in:
Key takeaway: Investor optimism has been unwinding even as indexes have moved into record territory and breadth remains strong (NYSE new high list at its highest level since 2004). This week’s featured chart shows the spread between institutional and individual sentiment collapsing. This has tended to occur ahead of market strength, not weakness. While the risks from a strategic positioning perspective are undiminished (especially in the context of valuations and household equity exposure), the short-term and intermediate-term sentiment picture has improved in recent weeks as optimism has come off the boil. It looks to me like investor sentiment has moved off of the risk side of the scale and the weight of the evidence is turning more constructive not more cautious.
Sentiment Chart of the Week: Sentiment Spread, II less AAII
The current intensity of the advisory services move toward a cautious stance matched with a rise...
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The market continues to fire on all cylinders right now. Last week's gains were nothing but a continuation of the same resiliency and momentum we've come to expect from risk assets over the last year.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
One lesson you learn pretty quickly as a market analyst is that not all assets are created equal.
Each and every financial instrument carries its own unique bundle of nuances... from a stocks' beta or systematic volatility as well as its residual risk, to the fee structure and rebalancing methodology of an exchange-traded fund or note, to the settlement and delivery procedures governing futures contracts.
All of these things impact the behavior and performance of these various markets.
Today, we're going to focus specifically on the inner workings of International Country ETFs and the way they are impacted by the currency component inherent in these vehicles.
Key Takeaway: New high lists are expanding, yet investors are turning more cautious. Weight of the evidence favors focusing on opportunity over risk. Commodity market strength encouraging development for economy and investors. Rotation to cyclical leadership has just begun.
Energy has climbed to the top of our sector-level relative strength rankings, occupying the number one spot across all three capitalization levels. Energy hasn’t been at the top of the rankings since mid-2018. We are also seeing sector-level leadership (again across all capitalization levels) in Financials, Materials and Industrials. Previous leaders continue to drop in the rankings as “quality growth” has fallen out of favor. Stubborn investors are sitting on their hands, adaptive investors are listening to the market and following these new leadership trends. Industry group rankings show small-cap groups dominating the top of the rankings, and large cap groups dominating the...
Strazza put out a post this weekend about scanning for strength in selloffs. Give it a read. Here's the Cliff's Notes: the recent selloff in tech has been an excellent opportunity for new leadership to reveal itself.
One of the names we like makes computer hardware and we're getting a nice little pullback today to lean in to a trade here.
As most of you know, we're big on our scans here at All Star Charts. And believe it or not, selloffs are actually some of the best times to scan for strength.
While our parameters will vary based on the market backdrop, there are two main things we almost alwaysfocus on when scanning for strong stocks in anyenvironment.
First and foremost, we're always looking for leadership. As many of you know, I'm a big advocate of fishing in the right places. Whether it's secret spots on the gulf stream or areas of markets showing strength, it's the same strategy... We want to position ourselves for the best catch.
We also want to limit our risk in case we're wrong. For us, this is as simple as betting only on those setups with clearly defined risk/rewards that are skewed heavily in our favor.
In other words, if we're right, we book hefty profits. On the other hand, if we're wrong, we'll know quickly and be out with minimal damage, and onto the next opportunity.