As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
We are still waiting for evidence that the bear market in equities has run its course, and a new bull market is being reborn. We have seen the short-term risk environment improve slightly over the last few weeks (2/5 criteria triggered), and the overall environment is beginning to lean more toward opportunity than risk. However, the burden of proof is on the bulls to show evidence of a sustainable move higher.
If tech stocks are signaling that a bottom is in, we're of the mind that we'll find some significant beta in a badly beaten household name: The recently renamed Meta $META (otherwise known as Facebook...).
Chatting with JC this morning, he was drawing a comparison of META to what Gold Miners $GDX did in 2016:
In the arsenal of every trader and technical analyst lies a countless number of indicators, metrics, and tools.
Everyone in the business is aware of the classic indicators: moving averages, Fibonacci extensions, momentum oscillators... the list goes on.
Perhaps one of the most valuable tools is the AVWAP. This is merely a representation of the average price by volume anchored to a specific time.
The AVWAP works because it takes advantage of human psychology. It's universally accepted within the scientific community that humans are driven by a slew of biases. Ask any trader, and they'll attest.
An incredibly common heuristic that drives much of the financial industry is the age-old anchoring bias. Many traders irrationally make decisions solely based on the price they paid for a stock.
In this sense, the market is driven by these participants responding to supply/demand dynamics within the context of their personal anchoring.
The implications of such indicators are that they allow us to gauge an aggregate cost basis of specific securities, ETFs, and financial instruments anchored...
When the worst stocks on the planet can't go down any more, that's usually good information.
We saw a lot of Small-cap Growth, Arkk Funds, Biotech, Chinese Internet and many of those other "Growthy" areas bottom out this Spring, and some of the last ones in June.
At the Mega-cap level, nothing caused more shareholder wealth destruction than Facebook, down 60% from its highs less than a year ago.
With a few breadth thrusts in recent weeks, and a little preview of what a weaker dollar could do to this market, we had plenty to talk about.
This question included: New Bull or Mean Reversion in a Bear?
I think the S&P500 tells an interesting story. You've got that massive top that formed throughout the past year, completing with a break of support this Spring.
And after further selling, the bounce has brought it back all the...