I F*d up.

And when I do, I usually suffer the consequences – almost without exception.

But today is one of those exceptions. Thankfully.

Recently, in an effort to fade the rising volatility in the options market arising from the 3-4 week pullback from recent stock market highs, I sold naked puts in a large cap stock – Occidental Petroleum $OXY.

I like the name for a number of reasons, the most prominent being that Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) has been acquiring large blocks of stock just below current levels. This is support.

So when the broader markets were continuing their slide a couple of weeks ago, I felt $OXY was a high probability bet to hold these levels until the mini-market panic cooled off, and selling premium via $OXY puts seemed like an...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: This year's rally has so far failed to turn long-term trends higher and is starting to look ragged. As we see how this period of digestion plays out, we are reducing the equity exposure in our Tactical Opportunity Portfolio.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Moving into commodities when they are trending higher versus stocks increases return and lowers risk relative to otherwise static equity exposure. Commodities may not always earn a spot in our portfolios, but we do well to remember to include them in the asset allocation conversation. 

Why It Matters: Commodities can go nowhere for years on an absolute and relative basis. 90% of the time from 2012 through 2020, the CRB index was in a downtrend relative to the S&P 500. During that time period commodities got the reduced portfolio exposure that they deserved. In many cases they got dropped from the conversation all together. Commodity leadership of the last couple of years revealed that to be short-sighted. With commodities cooling off and stocks again getting the upper hand on a relative basis, we can reduce our exposure, but let’s not exclude them from the conversation. As long as an asset has a seat at the table, we can choose to minimize our exposure to it. But...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

People, you know how much we talk about relative strength in these parts.

No matter the attention we give it, we always underestimate its efficacy in financial markets. We talked all about this last week.

When it comes to leadership in this market, it's impossible to ignore Lido DAO $LDO.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

February, I won't be sad to see you go!

It's been a very choppy month, and, as of now, we look to close lower overall for the past 28 days.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Kelcy Warren, co-founder and executive chairman of Energy Transfer $ET.

Warren reported an additional purchase, this one worth $21.6 million.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was negative, with 89% of our list closing lower with a median return of -2.14%.
• The Volatility Index $VIX was the winner, closing with an 8.24% gain.
• The biggest loser was Silver $SI, with a weekly loss of -4.17%.
• There was a 7% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 6%.
• 9% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• ...