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All Star Charts Crypto

📅 It's Time To Fade Altcoin Pessimism

June 24, 2024

Much of our recent coverage has focused on the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins.

While the former has barely sold off, there is a lot of damage down the cap scale.

People are frightened. People see red candles. People have forgotten what the bull market looks like.

And people are creating a lot of noise.

Our job at All Star Charts Crypto is to cut through that noise and to consider objective reality.

While people are giving up on these altcoins, our datasets point to downside exhaustion.

Consider, for example, the fact that we're seeing spikes in the number of cryptos hitting oversold conditions.

In the context of a long-term bull market, these periods have proven to be great times to be buyers – not sellers – of cryptocurrencies.

All Star Charts Crypto

🔍 Opportunities Arise Amid Sell-Off

June 24, 2024

Heading into last week we were mindful of the compression in volatility which meant an increased likelihood for larger price swings. Further, we were being patient given a number of our data sets were pointing to mixed signs.

We've seen selling continue, particularly ramping up this morning.

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The Bond Market Points to a Stock Market Correction

June 22, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mark it, dude.

We have another bearish divergence calling strike three on the stock market rally…

High-yield bonds $HYG versus US Treasuries $IEI.

Check out the HYG/IEI ratio (dark blue line) overlaid with the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

We use the HY bond-to-US Treasury ratio to track credit spreads. When the dark blue line falls, credit spreads widen – a sign of dwindling liquidity and stress for the bond market (the world’s largest market).

Stocks tend to struggle as credit spreads widen. 

On the flip side, when these spreads contract (or the HYG/IEI ratio catches higher) stocks rally as capital flows into risk assets. That’s why these two lines trend together. 

Notice the HYG/IEI ratio and SPY bottomed last October before rallying into the spring, following a similar path to new highs. 

But while the S&P 500 hit another all-time high this week, the HY bond-to-US Treasury ratio peaked in late April.

Plus, bullish momentum is deteriorating:

...

What's This Chart Telling Us?

June 22, 2024

This chart really stood out to me this week.

We just saw the Australian Dollar vs the Japanese Yen close at the highest levels since 2007.

So why investors care about the Aussie/Yen cross?

Because look how it trades with commodities...

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It’s Time for the Cows to Head Home

June 21, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Cattle futures are defying gravity.

Unlike most commodities during this cycle (pick your favorite base metal or grain contract), cattle have yet to correct lower. 

Instead, they’re still hanging around new all-time highs.

Something has to give...

Check out the diamond top taking shape on the live cattle chart:

Diamond tops are a rare bearish reversal pattern. They’re so rare that I’m slow to draw their boundaries. 

But I was reassured when referencing Richard W. Schabacker’s Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits: “The real bible of technical analysis.”

He points out,

It [diamond pattern] is rarely found in perfectly symmetrical and clearly defined form: a certain amount of latitude must be taken and is permissible in drawing its boundaries.

Schabacker’s the authority, so I’ll give myself some wiggle room.

I see a broadening price action...

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International Hall of Famers (06-21-2024)

June 21, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Time for the Cows to Head Home

June 21, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Cattle futures are defying gravity.

Unlike most commodities during this cycle (pick your favorite base metal or grain contract), cattle have yet to correct lower. 

Instead, they’re still hanging around new all-time highs.

Something has to give…

 

[Podcast] From the Slopes to the Screens: Todd Gordon is Hyper-Focused

June 21, 2024

Flying down a mountainside on two skis while negotiating tight turns and ever-changing microclimates would be a terrible time to lose focus.

Todd Gordon knows this. If he hadn’t quickly learned this skill in his journey to competitive ski racing, he would’ve likely landed himself onto a stretcher and an air-lift back to base.

There was no other choice. 

But for Todd, he’d have it no other way. From a young age, when he found an interest in something – whether skiing or finance – he’d go all in. Nothing else mattered.

And when he discovered the world of trading, he knew what he wanted to do. “There was never a question,” he said.

In college, between classes, skiing, and happy hours, Todd would trade options from his dorm room. It wasn’t a matter of IF he would be a trader, it was a matter of where would he start.

And that answer came right after college when at the age of 22, Todd headed west and joined a proprietary trading group based in San Diego. And from there, he never looked back.

How did he handle those first twinges of pressure when early trades went awry? His background in high-pressure competitive skiing gave him...

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[Options Premium] Not the Same Ol' General Electric

June 21, 2024

In fact, it's not even called General Electric anymore. The company is now called "GE Aerospace."

I bring this up because the analysts had a debate today on whether or not $GE stock bumping up against levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis even matter. Is it even the same company today as it was in 2008? The unequivocal answer is no -- it is not the same company.

Regardless, the only thing that really matters to us is the price action and its hard to ignore the run $GE has been on over the past eight months.

Check out this chart:

 

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Junior International Hall of Famers (06-20-2024)

June 20, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over...