This week I was running up and down the east coast in meetings and conferences. With some of the free time I had left, I sat down with a few of my favorite financial journalists to rap about the markets. On Monday afternoon I was on Bloomberg TV and Tuesday I was on the Business News Network with Frances Horodelski. I don't have as much time to do TV like I used to in the past, so it was a fun experience for sure.
On Monday afternoon I was over at the Bloomberg headquarters in New York City to discuss markets with Joe Weisenthal, Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu. Every time I've been on a guest on this show I've had pretty much nothing but bad news to share as far as the stock market is concerned. In January, all of our downside objectives were achieved and I've really changed my tune. I think this strength we've seen in stocks over the past month continues, particularly the relative strength in emerging markets.
After rallying more than 13% over the past three months, EUR/GBP looks to be setting up on the short side.
Structurally this market has been in a downtrend since 2009, with selling accelerating further in late 2014 as support near .7750 failed to hold. After consolidating above .6930-.70 throughout the majority of 2015, prices moved to new highs and rallied back into broken support.
You guys who know me already understand why it is that I am constantly looking for whipsaws. The best risk vs reward opportunities are sparked from such events. We often refer to whipsaws as failed breakdowns or failed breakouts depending on the direction of the underlying trend. From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction, and that's why we look for them.
The idea behind support and resistance is that when markets meets resistance, or a level where supply exceeds demand, prices continue to fall from that price until eventually it breaks through it. Sometimes it tests resistance once or twice and sometimes 3 - 4 times, but the idea behind it remains the same. Once resistance has been broken
With Cotton futures nearly 75% off their 2011 highs, market participants may be looking for a reason to get long this market. The weight of evidence however, suggests there is likely another 15% downside ahead.
The daily chart spanning back nine years shows prices topping and subsequently beginning a downtrend in early 2011. Over the past eighteen months prices have consolidated as they attempted to break back above the 2012 lows and downtrend line from the 2011 highs. Despite its efforts, Cotton could not close back above the confluence of resistance at 68 and is now threatening to break through the lower end of the 57-68 range.
From a structural perspective the next logical area
This weekend I did my regular global macro review. This is when I go country by country analyzing the weekly and daily charts of all of the stock markets around the world. Each chart includes a momentum study (14-period RSI)and a 200 period moving average that we use to help with trend recognition. I trade indexes all over the world, simply because I can. Why wouldn't I?
Precious metals are a sensitive subject in some circles. Discussions about gold or silver tend to bring out more anger and craziness than other assets. As someone who couldn't care less about what we're trading, Gold, Apple, Bonds, Australian Dollars or Go Pro, to me it's just letters and math. I find it kind of funny when people get extra sensitive about a specific asset. Precious metals bring out some of the most hilarious commentary.
Today, I want to break down Gold and Precious Metals from many different angles in order to put it into context from both a structural perspective and a shorter-term tactical outlook.
With the Yen rallying nearly 10% from intraday low to high in as many days, this breakout is not one to be ignored. Since the Yen has a strong negative correlation with US equities, this inter-market relationship is an important one to keep track of regardless of whether you trade currencies or not.
Structurally the Yen has been trading in a seven point range at and below the 2006-2007 lows for the last 15 months. Late last year prices confirmed a failed breakdown by breaking back above the 2005 & 2007 lows, as well as the downtrend line from the 2012 highs.
Over the past two weeks prices have accelerated to the upside, providing additional confirmation that this market is headed higher. As long as prices can hold above support outlined in gray (.0082), then the weight of evidence suggests the first upside target is near the 161.8% extension of the late 2014-2016 range and prior support near .0098-.0099.
A few weeks ago global equity markets began to mean revert to the upside after many met downside targets and momentum positively diverged. For examples of this check out my posts from then here and here. The same failed breakdowns and bullish momentum divergences that sparked a rally globally are now present across many of the US sectors and indices.
Of the 41 US indices / sectors I follow, 28 of them have bullish momentum divergences on the daily charts and have either confirmed, or are working on confirming, a failed breakdown by trading back above a prior low.