Over the next month I will be giving several technical analysis presentations on the east coast and all of you are invited to join me. Some of you have seen me give these before, so just know that they are all different. I try and tailor the educational content to the current market environment that is obviously always evolving. Here are the upcoming dates and details:
In every market there are leaders and there are laggards. This is the case in both bull and bear markets. Regardless of the environment, some stocks and sectors will simply outperform others. Sometimes, this relative performance tells us a lot about the overall risk-appetite for institutional investors and in which direction they are headed.
In honor of Superbowl 50, we created a countdown of what we consider to be the most important 50 charts in the world. These include U.S. Stocks and Sectors, International Indexes, Currencies, Commodities, Interest Rate Markets and Global Intermarket relationships. Some of these are more actionable than others, but collectively I think they truly tell the story of global market risk, or risk aversion for that matter.
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Every month we host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
This month's Conference Call will be held Thursday February 11, 2016 at 7PM ET
In this month's premium members conference call, we will discuss the following topics:
- Can we still get a counter-trend rally before getting down to 1720 in the S&P500?
- A deep dive look at the Bond Market and how to profit from it
- Why Emerging Markets will keep outperforming
- Crude Oil and Gold - What do we do with these now?
- Amazon has been a great short, but what do we do with these momentum stocks today?
As always, we'll leave as much time for Q&A as possible.
One of the most valuable tools that we have as market participants is in taking the sum of the parts to help come up with a final conclusion. While we all talk about what the Dow did yesterday or what it’s done year-to-date, it is easy to forget that there are 30 companies driving this popular U.S. stock market benchmark. By going through each of these 30 stocks, we can get a better feel for the market itself rather than just analyzing the performance of the index. To me, it’s the combination of the two that seems to be the best approach.
All of the 30 Dow Components have just been updated in the Chartbook, and here are my notes on the results:
In honor of Superbowl 50 I share with you what I think are the best 50 charts in the world. The hashtag on Twitter to follow along is #SB50Charts. Here is the entire list in order. Click the link inside the tweets for comments on each chart.
One of the strongest and most impressive trends over the past 8 years has been the fierce and dramatic outperformance of the United States Stock Market over everyone else. Even when global equities have gotten hit hard, the U.S. has been referred to as the "Best house in a bad block". This is for good reason too. It has been. We've seen tremendous outperformance during both good and bad markets.
Momentum is a word that gets thrown around a lot. I personally like to measure momentum using a 14-period relative strength index (see here), but different people have different definitions. Fine. For today, we'll argue that "momentum" stocks are those listed in the MSCI USA Momentum Index. Looking at these stocks as a group, I think they are going to continue to get destroyed going forward, particularly relative to the rest of the market.
First of all, forget this whole FANG thing. I don't know who made that up or why people like to limit it to just 4 stocks. I think it's stupid. They have nothing to do with one another and there should be others included in the list. In fact, in November I wrote a piece about how FANG stocks are this cycles Four Horseman (See here) and was further evidence at the time that made us very bearish U.S. Stocks heading into December and January. That obviously worked out very well.
The U.S. Stock market and most of its sectors continue to rally. As happy as we are to see this, and as much as we expect this to continue through February, these are only counter-trend rallies within larger structural declines. The good news is that counter-trend rallies in bear markets historically tend to be the most powerful kind of rallies. I think there is still room to the upside in many different sectors with very well-defined risk.
All of the charts have been updated on the Chartbook. Here are my notes for this week's sector review:
