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Gold: One Good Trend Pays for 'Em All

July 22, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s failed breakout is testing investor resolve.

But let’s consider last week’s action before unearthing our bullion.

Check out the failed breakout with a bearish momentum divergence in the lower pane:

Waning momentum and failed breakouts go hand in hand. Gold futures proved an excellent example of momentum diverging from price, one of the reasons we track RSI readings.

But just because momentum confirmed the failed breakout doesn’t mean we should turn bearish gold and precious metals.

Remember, gold posted a new all-time high last week. New all-time highs are bullish in my book, no matter how you slice them.

Plus, the March breakout remains valid, and the underlying uptrend is intact:

Zoom out on the weekly chart, and last week’s bar becomes a whipsaw (much like last December’s false start).

I get it: No one likes...

We Buy Stocks In Bull Markets

July 22, 2024

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its highest weekly closing price in history.

Meanwhile, this week we also saw the highest reading of NYSE stocks above their 200 day moving average during this entire bull market.

Do you know how many times we saw a new 52-week high for the Dow in 2021 along with these breadth readings also hitting new cycle highs?

Zero.

It didn't even happen once.

That's because back in 2021, market breadth was deteriorating, not expanding.

See the difference?

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🔍 The Ethereum ETF

July 22, 2024

Investors are preparing themselves for the launch of a second wave of crypto ETFs. With Ethereum up over 25% in recent weeks, it's clear the market has positive expectations for these new products.

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Base and Industrial Metals: From Failed Breakouts to Fresh Breakdowns

July 19, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are taking a hit.

The major equity indexes are seeing red. Crude oil is slipping below eighty bucks. And gold is failing at new all-time highs.

Perhaps the markets are navigating the summertime blues – a tune base and industrial metal investors have been humming for months.

Remember copper’s failed breakout in May:

Oof!

Dr. Copper is living up to the trading adage that from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction.

The futures continue to fall – down almost 8 percent this week. 

Meanwhile, track the 4.16 level for potential support:

That level coincides with a key retracement and former resistance area – a logical place for buyers to step in and defend price. 

On the other hand, momentum is drifting toward oversold conditions. If the 14-day RSI drops below 30, I imagine copper will reach...

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It’s Time To Buy the Bios

July 19, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Breadth has expanded in a big way since last week, with more and more stocks finally joining in on the bull market as big-cap tech leaders take a breather.

At the sector and industry group level, our list of indexes that are in uptrends continues to grow.

Some notable new members on this list include regional banks, small-caps, and various speculative growth funds.

After years of basing in accumulation patterns, these groups are just now completing primary trend reversals.

What does this mean?

In its simplest form, it means there are more ponds we can fish in for long opportunities. There are more stocks -- and groups of stocks -- that are in uptrends.

It’s just more options for us.

One of the groups that has broken out with authority recently is the biotechs.

Regardless of what index you're looking at, the path of least resistance is now higher for this health care subsector.

We’ve identified some of the strongest biotech stocks with asymmetric risk/reward setups and clear levels to trade against.

We think these are the best vehicles to bet...

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International Hall of Famers (07-19-2024)

July 19, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Base & Industrial Metals: From Failed Breakouts to Fresh Breakdowns

July 19, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are taking a hit.

The major equity indexes are seeing red. Crude oil is slipping below eighty bucks. And Gold is failing at new all-time highs.

Perhaps the markets are navigating the summertime blues – a tune base and industrial metal investors have been humming for months.

 

Dow's Largest Stock Breaks Out!

July 18, 2024

Is it bearish when the largest component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs?

To be clear, we're talking about the world's most important stock market index here. And UnitedHealth represents over 8.5% of the entire Papa Dow.

Look at this chart. While people are telling you that the market is in a bubble, things are parabolic and this is unsustainable, the largest weighting of the most important stock market gauge hasn't even done anything for years.

Until now...