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[Options Premium] Going Long Abroad (sort of)

January 7, 2019

So far, the Christmas Eve low in U.S. stocks is holding. Boy, wouldn't that have a nice ring to it if it sticks and stocks eventually return to new all time highs? I'm not saying it will, but that sure would be interesting.

In the past week, stocks across the board firmed up. But I'm not one to put too much weigh on the first partial week of trading activity to ring in the New Year. I think this coming week will give us a better indication of where the path of least resistance is.

So while I'm not yet convinced it is safe to buy here in the U.S., there is some tempting mean reversion happening in Latin America that has us interested.

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[Premium] Global ETF Charts of Interest

January 7, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

In this post I want to highlight some of the most interesting and/or actionable relative-performance charts from our Global ETF Universe. Whether you're interested in actionable pair trades or simply looking for information about where money is flowing in the world, these charts should provide some good perspective on where various markets stand at the start of 2019.

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[Premium] Stocks We're Buying In January

January 6, 2019

Vacation is over and January is in full gear. Over the holidays we had our downside targets hit in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (23,350), Dow Jones Transportation Average (9300), Nasdaq100 (6150), and Russell2000 ETF (129). Now, just because these levels were achieved, doesn't mean we can't go substantially lower.

However, in this post we're focused on the current mean reversion we're seeing in stocks around the globe and how to profit from it. We'll worry about later this year later this year.

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Here Are The IBD 50 Stocks We're Buying

January 5, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Earlier today we uploaded a post outlining the case for some mean reversion in Canadian Equities, as well as the stocks we're buying to take advantage of that thesis. The same pattern that can potentially drive those stocks higher is also present in the IBD 50 ETF FFTY, so in this post we're outlining the IBD 50 stocks with the best reward/risk.

First let's take a look at the ETF itself, which has fallen 35% since October and recently undercut support as momentum diverged. If prices are above 26.75, this failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence setup remains intact, targeting former support near 32.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

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Here Are The Canadian Stocks We're Buying

January 5, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

In late November we wrote about the best long and short setups in the TSX 60, and our winners offset those trades that were quickly proven incorrect. In today's environment we're seeing potential for mean reversion in several areas of Canada's stock market, so we're going to focus on the best reward/risk setups on the long side.

First let's start with the sectors and indexes to identify what areas of the market we're likely to find individual stock ideas.

At the broader-market level, the Equal-Weight TSX 60 is attempting to confirm a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence by closing above 135.05, which would signal potential upside toward 143.25.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

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[Options Premium] A Friendly Teller

January 4, 2019

We're headed back to our friendly neighborhood bank teller at JP Morgan Chase. She seems to like handing us cash. Twice she has been quite generous to us and the post-Christmas bounce in shares of $JPM gives us extra interest in coming back for a third helping.

 

How Low Can US Stocks Go?

January 3, 2019

Since early October, a big question for us has been, "How low can US Stocks go?  Obviously no one knew then, and no one knows now, so all we did know was that we did not want to own stocks. We wanted to be sellers, not buyers. Go to cash and ask questions later, type of mentality.

We've looked at declines in Crude Oil and widening credit spreads as a gauge for what to expect out of stocks. We've been monitoring market breadth for evidence of confirmations of declining indexes or whether they're diverging from them. These internals studies and intermarket analysis techniques are great and incredibly helpful in any environment. But today I want to focus on specific prices levels for the two most important indexes in America. 

We're Selling Autos...Again

January 3, 2019

Autos were some of the worst performers in 2018, and new lows on a relative basis to start 2019 suggest the first quarter may bring more of the same for this sector. This post will outline why we want to continue to sell strength in this sector, as well as the best ways to express this theme.

Below is a chart of the Nifty Auto Index hitting new 52-week lows relative to the Nifty 500. This trend of under-performance has been intact since early 2017 and appears to be heading back toward the lows it set in 2012-2013.

Click on chart to enlarge view.