Due to a scheduling conflict around the annual CMT Symposium in New York, JC and I will be doing our monthly conference call a little later in the cycle this month. But have no worries, I'll provide some updates below on positions we have open with April options that may need some attention or adjustments.

We've been erring on the long side of stocks for the last 6 weeks, taking trades where the reward/risk is heavily skewed in our favor, but are still seeing mixed evidence regarding the market's ability to make new highs in the short-term.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

I received a ton of great responses via Twitter and email for this week's Mystery Chart, so thank you for that.

Most said you'd be buying the breakout at current levels or on a successful retest, but a few skeptics were staying away. Let's get into the actual chart.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The Equally-Weighted Semiconductor Index recently made new all-time highs, while the cap-weighted sits a few below its 2018 highs. What's next for Semis? That's what I hope to answer in this post.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Palladium. For the last 3 years, nobody cared a lick as it nearly quadrupled in price. Over the last month however, I'd seen more mentions* as the price trend accelerated than I did for the entire 3-year trend beforehand.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.

The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

I don't often take long premium plays ahead of an earnings event, but there's one coming on the horizon where the options pricing isn't too high (yet) and the All Star Charts team has a price target that would yield us a greater than 4-to-1 return on risk if the earnings catalyst plays out in our favor.

Everyone these days is talking about yield curves inverting. It's the topic du jour, similar to things like golden crosses and 200 day moving averages. The difference is that this one is more intermarket oriented. "Well if this happens to bonds and that happens to rates, then this historically happens to stocks, or the economy". Observing the behavior of one asset class to help make decisions on another is called Intermarket Analysis, or "Cross-Asset" in some more institutional circles.

I don't think there is much more for me to say at this point about the yield curve. The crew over at The Chart Report pretty much covered it all beautifully last week. The short end of the curve (10-year minus 3-month) turned negative, but the long end of the curve did not. The 10s-30s spread is steepening and controlled by free markets vs the fed controlled short end. We've seen this happen before, like in the 90s for example, without it sparking bear markets. 

We've been writing about the slow improvement in price, momentum, and breadth over the last few months, leading us to err on the long side of stocks. With that said, we continue to see signals that Equities are not out of the woods just yet.

This is going to be a quick post looking at the potential failed breakdown that can lead to Reliance Communications doubling in a few months.

A year ago, I made a commitment to healthier eating. Not that I was a slob or anything, it was just that my attitude about what I was willing to put into my body (basically anything) needed to change. At my age, you begin to think about these things.

That said, I'll still happily get long stocks of fast food companies that are poisoning the human race if there's a way for me to profit from it (then spend the earnings at the local vegan grocer!). And one household fast food chain is setting up for a big potential move.