If there is one thing that stands out from any conversation with Brian Shannon about the trading process, it is this:
For discretionary traders, there are no rules. Instead, there are "guidelines."
And because Brian is human, he occasionally breaks his guidelines and suffers the same consequences as anyone else. Everyone gets what they deserve. Even a trader of 30+ years like Brian Shannon.
If a trader buys the dip or sells the rip without a plan to control her risk then she, too, will get what she deserves. Eventually. The market is always on the hunt for our weaknesses.
Last week in Sonoma, we uncovered a bunch of potential trades that are setting up in a variety of sectors. But one of them is sending a glaring signal that it is ready for us to get involved right now, so let's not waste any time.
After spending a week with clients at our Portfolio Accelerator and fielding countless reader emails, I completely agree!
Since gold and silver prices are getting a bit wild, I decided to dive straight into the Gold Rush mailbag today to start a healthy discussion about what might happen next…
What happened to gold/silver? Is the rally over?
-Parry
No, the rally isn't over.
Gold is consolidating below a critical extension level following a breakout to new all-time highs. And Silver is trading just off fresh decade-highs.
In many ways, it’s just getting started.
I can’t hold a bearish or neutral bias for precious metals while Silver trades above the 2020 highs of roughly 30.
I'm seeing a number of positive developments that supports an intermediate-term bullish bias. The current weight of the evidence points to further upside in the coming months.
Bitcoin continues to move higher following its retest of the 60,000 support level. The short-term trends in crypto markets are higher, which aligns with equity markets making new highs.
Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.
Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.
For instance…
The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:
KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.
Interestingly, the similarities between the carbon allowances, copper versus gold, and silver versus gold charts are uncanny. All three are violating multi-year downtrend lines, suggesting bullish trend reversals and a risk-on market environment.
We like KRBN long above 35, targeting 56.
That’s it for today. We’ll be back with more next week.
You can see here in the chart below, for example, that with the S&P500 closing at new all-time highs this week, the Consumer is just not getting the memo.
In fact, Consumer Discretionary just went out at new lows relative to the S&P500.
The underperformance has not stopped. It's only gotten worse.
Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.
Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.
For instance…
The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:
KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.